*AI Summary*
The input material requires analysis within the domain of *Finance and Technology Strategy,* specifically concerning the economic implications and technical architecture of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Large Language Models (LLMs).
I will adopt the persona of a *Senior Financial Analyst specializing in Technology Sector Disruptions.* My focus will be on quantifying investment trends, dissecting technological capabilities (LLM mechanics vs. traditional ML), and assessing the potential for market realization of value.
---
### Recommended Review Group
This discussion is best reviewed by a cross-functional team comprising:
1. *Quantitative Financial Analysts/Venture Capitalists:* To evaluate the $650 billion hyperscaler spending figures, assess the market narrative persistence, and model potential ROI timelines against the observed diminishing marginal returns.
2. *Applied Computer Scientists/AI Researchers:* To validate the technical descriptions of embeddings, transformers, RLHF/RLVR, and especially the concept of "World Models" as potential paradigm shifts away from purely statistical pattern matching.
3. *Enterprise Technology Strategists/Management Consultants:* To assess the feasibility and strategic value of Agentic AI implementation, particularly concerning the prerequisite of data centralization/cleaning ("creating a fertile environment") versus the disruptive impact on incumbent software vendors and consulting practices.
---
### Abstract:
This interview segment, hosted by Steve Eisman and featuring Columbia Business School Professor Daniel Gua, conducts a deep dive into the mechanics, economic impact, and future scaling challenges of Large Language Models (LLMs).
The discussion begins by contrasting traditional predictive AI (like Zillow's Zestimate, relying on structured numerical data) with Generative AI (LLMs), which handle unstructured data via techniques like *embeddings* (converting words to high-dimensional numerical vectors based on co-occurrence) and *transformers* (allowing embeddings to contextually interact). Professor Gua emphasizes that LLMs are fundamentally sophisticated "autocomplete engines" predicting the next token based on massive training data, explaining that their inherent probabilistic nature makes *hallucinations* a feature, not a bug.
The conversation then explores practical applications, categorizing LLM value into three buckets: enhancing classical ML (e.g., improving content moderation by extracting meaning from text), *Agentic AI* (LLMs equipped with "hands" or external tools, like processing returns or booking flights), and direct chatbot utility (including sophisticated custom internal knowledge base utilization via embeddings).
Finally, the speakers analyze market narratives, noting that while software company moats are perceived to be collapsing due to cheaper development via LLMs, incumbents (like Salesforce) provide necessary business structure that LLM customization alone may not replace. A key bottleneck identified for realizing current AI investment value is the poor data readiness of most corporate America, although GenAI is noted as a potential catalyst for data cleanup. The potential for future breakthroughs hinges on researching new paradigms like *World Models* to move beyond statistical parroting.
---
### Exploring AI Architecture, Economic Spend, and Strategic Utility
* *0:00:07 Economic Stakes & Hyperscaler Spend:* The discussion frames AI as crucial to the U.S. economy, noting the top four hyperscalers plan to spend *$650 billion* on AI-related tech infrastructure.
* *0:00:40 Nuance on LLM Efficacy:* The conversation seeks a balanced view following criticism from Gary Marcus, contrasting LLM critics with Professor Gua, who agrees on certain limitations but disagrees on others.
* *0:01:14 Core Topic:* The exploration moves beyond business impact to the *internal guts of AI*—assessing if AI is a bubble and its world-changing potential.
* *0:03:52 Dichotomy of AI Types:* AI is segmented into *Predictive AI* (older, machine learning, uses structured numerical data) and *Generative AI (GenAI),* which includes LLMs.
* *0:04:31 Predictive AI Example (Zestimate):* Traditional ML models are trained by tweaking parameters (weights) using historical data to fit patterns, exemplified by Zillow's property valuation model.
* *0:06:44 LLM Breakthrough:* GenAI/Deep Learning overcame the limitation of numerical data by processing *unstructured data* (text, images) by deriving conceptual understanding.
* *0:07:50 LLM Functionality:* LLMs operate using an *enormous number of parameters and data* to mimic patterns; understanding is considered a misnomer as they only mimic historical data.
* *0:10:22 Hallucinations Explained:* The interviewer asks why LLMs hallucinate; the expert states the surprise should be when they *do not* hallucinate.
* *0:10:32 LLMs as Autocomplete:* At a high level, LLMs function by sequentially predicting the next most probable word based on the entire preceding context (the conversation history).
* *0:11:20 Computational Cost:* Generating each subsequent word requires reprocessing the *entire conversation history,* leading to high energy consumption.
* *0:11:50 Key Concept: Embeddings:* Words are converted to numbers (vectors) via embeddings, allowing computers to process language. These embeddings are scores (e.g., "aliveness," "loudness") determined via machine learning, not arbitrary assignment.
* *0:14:14 Training Embeddings:* LLM training involves analyzing co-occurrence data (e.g., "King" near "Queen" across the internet) to constantly tweak the numerical scores of words to group similar concepts.
* *0:16:00 Contextual Complexity:* The *Transformer* model (2017) allows these embeddings to "pay attention" to each other, resolving ambiguity (e.g., the different meanings of "date").
* *0:17:25 The Miracle of Correctness:* The process of predicting the next word based purely on statistical probability means getting any complex answer right is miraculous, as demonstrated by probabilistic deviation in a random ball-picking query (*18:54* probability distribution divergence).
* *0:29:27 Value Buckets for LLMs:* Professor Gua categorizes immediate LLM value into: 1) Supercharging classical ML models, 2) *Agentic AI,* and 3) Utility as standard chatbots.
* *0:30:06 Supercharging ML Example (Content Moderation):* LLMs extract the *meaning* of text comments, providing inputs (e.g., meaning scores or embeddings) to traditional ML models to flag suspicious content, mitigating the weakness of older models that relied only on keywords (like avoiding the word "kill").
* *0:33:38 Agentic AI Definition:* Defined as an LLM chatbot equipped with "hands"—the ability to execute real-world actions via pre-defined tools (sending emails, processing credit cards, booking travel).
* *0:36:28 IT Prerequisite for Value:* Realizing Agentic AI value requires companies to first have digitized and accessible IT systems ("create a fertile environment").
* *0:41:58 Database Vulnerability:* Companies whose competitive advantage relies on manually compiled or digitized handwritten data are highly vulnerable to disruption by LLMs that can extract structured data from unstructured sources rapidly.
* *0:48:15 Value of Business Structure:* Incumbent software providers (like Salesforce) maintain value not just through the code, but through the enterprise structure, standardization, and governance they impose on disorganized business operations.
* *0:52:30 Future Research Paradigms:* Future model evolution focuses on training that judges the *full answer* rather than just the next token, including *Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR),* and experimental *World Models* (creating an internal simulation/mini-matrix).
* *0:55:14 Statistical Parroting and Bias:* LLMs are statistical parrots replicating existing data, which inherently leads to problems with novelty and biases (political, moral) absorbed from the training corpus and reinforced during the RLHF (human feedback) tuning stage.
* *0:58:48 Final Encouragement:* Even if LLMs do not achieve Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), significant, tangible value exists today in solving complex, structured operational problems (e.g., healthcare claims processing).
* *1:01:34 Market Realization Timeline:* The central question remains whether the current massive investment by hyperscalers will yield returns that justify the spend; the answer may not be clear until *2027 or 2028.*
Error: value error Invalid operation: The `response.text` quick accessor requires the response to contain a valid `Part`, but none were returned. The candidate's [finish_reason](https://ai.google-dot-dev/api/generate-content#finishreason) is 1.
AI-generated summary created with gemini-2.5-flash-lite-preview-09-2025 for free via RocketRecap-dot-com. (Input: 47,281 tokens, Output: 1,826 tokens, Est. cost: $0.0055).Below, I will provide input for an example video (comprising of title, description, and transcript, in this order) and the corresponding abstract and summary I expect. Afterward, I will provide a new transcript that I want a summarization in the same format.
**Please give an abstract of the transcript and then summarize the transcript in a self-contained bullet list format.** Include starting timestamps, important details and key takeaways.
Example Input:
Fluidigm Polaris Part 2- illuminator and camera
mikeselectricstuff
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Fluidigm Polaris part 1 : • Fluidigm Polaris (Part 1) - Biotech g...
Ebay listings: https://www.ebay.co.uk/usr/mikeselect...
Merch https://mikeselectricstuff.creator-sp...
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mikeselectricstuff
131K subscribers
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40 Comments
@robertwatsonbath
6 hours ago
Thanks Mike. Ooof! - with the level of bodgery going on around 15:48 I think shame would have made me do a board re spin, out of my own pocket if I had to.
1
Reply
@Muonium1
9 hours ago
The green LED looks different from the others and uses phosphor conversion because of the "green gap" problem where green InGaN emitters suffer efficiency droop at high currents. Phosphide based emitters don't start becoming efficient until around 600nm so also can't be used for high power green emitters. See the paper and plot by Matthias Auf der Maur in his 2015 paper on alloy fluctuations in InGaN as the cause of reduced external quantum efficiency at longer (green) wavelengths.
4
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1 reply
@tafsirnahian669
10 hours ago (edited)
Can this be used as an astrophotography camera?
Reply
mikeselectricstuff
·
1 reply
@mikeselectricstuff
6 hours ago
Yes, but may need a shutter to avoid light during readout
Reply
@2010craggy
11 hours ago
Narrowband filters we use in Astronomy (Astrophotography) are sided- they work best passing light in one direction so I guess the arrows on the filter frames indicate which way round to install them in the filter wheel.
1
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@vitukz
12 hours ago
A mate with Channel @extractions&ire could use it
2
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@RobertGallop
19 hours ago
That LED module says it can go up to 28 amps!!! 21 amps for 100%. You should see what it does at 20 amps!
Reply
@Prophes0r
19 hours ago
I had an "Oh SHIT!" moment when I realized that the weird trapezoidal shape of that light guide was for keystone correction of the light source.
Very clever.
6
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@OneBiOzZ
20 hours ago
given the cost of the CCD you think they could have run another PCB for it
9
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@tekvax01
21 hours ago
$20 thousand dollars per minute of run time!
1
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@tekvax01
22 hours ago
"We spared no expense!" John Hammond Jurassic Park.
*(that's why this thing costs the same as a 50-seat Greyhound Bus coach!)
Reply
@florianf4257
22 hours ago
The smearing on the image could be due to the fact that you don't use a shutter, so you see brighter stripes under bright areas of the image as you still iluminate these pixels while the sensor data ist shifted out towards the top. I experienced this effect back at university with a LN-Cooled CCD for Spectroscopy. The stripes disapeared as soon as you used the shutter instead of disabling it in the open position (but fokussing at 100ms integration time and continuous readout with a focal plane shutter isn't much fun).
12
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mikeselectricstuff
·
1 reply
@mikeselectricstuff
12 hours ago
I didn't think of that, but makes sense
2
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@douro20
22 hours ago (edited)
The red LED reminds me of one from Roithner Lasertechnik. I have a Symbol 2D scanner which uses two very bright LEDs from that company, one red and one red-orange. The red-orange is behind a lens which focuses it into an extremely narrow beam.
1
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@RicoElectrico
23 hours ago
PFG is Pulse Flush Gate according to the datasheet.
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@dcallan812
23 hours ago
Very interesting. 2x
Reply
@littleboot_
1 day ago
Cool interesting device
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@dav1dbone
1 day ago
I've stripped large projectors, looks similar, wonder if some of those castings are a magnesium alloy?
Reply
@kevywevvy8833
1 day ago
ironic that some of those Phlatlight modules are used in some of the cheapest disco lights.
1
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1 reply
@bill6255
1 day ago
Great vid - gets right into subject in title, its packed with information, wraps up quickly. Should get a YT award! imho
3
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@JAKOB1977
1 day ago (edited)
The whole sensor module incl. a 5 grand 50mpix sensor for 49 £.. highest bid atm
Though also a limited CCD sensor, but for the right buyer its a steal at these relative low sums.
Architecture Full Frame CCD (Square Pixels)
Total Number of Pixels 8304 (H) × 6220 (V) = 51.6 Mp
Number of Effective Pixels 8208 (H) × 6164 (V) = 50.5 Mp
Number of Active Pixels 8176 (H) × 6132 (V) = 50.1 Mp
Pixel Size 6.0 m (H) × 6.0 m (V)
Active Image Size 49.1 mm (H) × 36.8 mm (V)
61.3 mm (Diagonal),
645 1.1x Optical Format
Aspect Ratio 4:3
Horizontal Outputs 4
Saturation Signal 40.3 ke−
Output Sensitivity 31 V/e−
Quantum Efficiency
KAF−50100−CAA
KAF−50100−AAA
KAF−50100−ABA (with Lens)
22%, 22%, 16% (Peak R, G, B)
25%
62%
Read Noise (f = 18 MHz) 12.5 e−
Dark Signal (T = 60°C) 42 pA/cm2
Dark Current Doubling Temperature 5.7°C
Dynamic Range (f = 18 MHz) 70.2 dB
Estimated Linear Dynamic Range
(f = 18 MHz)
69.3 dB
Charge Transfer Efficiency
Horizontal
Vertical
0.999995
0.999999
Blooming Protection
(4 ms Exposure Time)
800X Saturation Exposure
Maximum Date Rate 18 MHz
Package Ceramic PGA
Cover Glass MAR Coated, 2 Sides or
Clear Glass
Features
• TRUESENSE Transparent Gate Electrode
for High Sensitivity
• Ultra-High Resolution
• Board Dynamic Range
• Low Noise Architecture
• Large Active Imaging Area
Applications
• Digitization
• Mapping/Aerial
• Photography
• Scientific
Thx for the tear down Mike, always a joy
Reply
@martinalooksatthings
1 day ago
15:49 that is some great bodging on of caps, they really didn't want to respin that PCB huh
8
Reply
@RhythmGamer
1 day ago
Was depressed today and then a new mike video dropped and now I’m genuinely happy to get my tear down fix
1
Reply
@dine9093
1 day ago (edited)
Did you transfrom into Mr Blobby for a moment there?
2
Reply
@NickNorton
1 day ago
Thanks Mike. Your videos are always interesting.
5
Reply
@KeritechElectronics
1 day ago
Heavy optics indeed... Spare no expense, cost no object. Splendid build quality. The CCD is a thing of beauty!
1
Reply
@YSoreil
1 day ago
The pricing on that sensor is about right, I looked in to these many years ago when they were still in production since it's the only large sensor you could actually buy. Really cool to see one in the wild.
2
Reply
@snik2pl
1 day ago
That leds look like from led projector
Reply
@vincei4252
1 day ago
TDI = Time Domain Integration ?
1
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@wolpumba4099
1 day ago (edited)
Maybe the camera should not be illuminated during readout.
From the datasheet of the sensor (Onsemi): saturation 40300 electrons, read noise 12.5 electrons per pixel @ 18MHz (quite bad). quantum efficiency 62% (if it has micro lenses), frame rate 1 Hz. lateral overflow drain to prevent blooming protects against 800x (factor increases linearly with exposure time) saturation exposure (32e6 electrons per pixel at 4ms exposure time), microlens has +/- 20 degree acceptance angle
i guess it would be good for astrophotography
4
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@txm100
1 day ago (edited)
Babe wake up a new mikeselectricstuff has dropped!
9
Reply
@vincei4252
1 day ago
That looks like a finger-lakes filter wheel, however, for astronomy they'd never use such a large stepper.
1
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@MRooodddvvv
1 day ago
yaaaaay ! more overcomplicated optical stuff !
4
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1 reply
@NoPegs
1 day ago
He lives!
11
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1 reply
Transcript
0:00
so I've stripped all the bits of the
0:01
optical system so basically we've got
0:03
the uh the camera
0:05
itself which is mounted on this uh very
0:09
complex
0:10
adjustment thing which obviously to set
0:13
you the various tilt and uh alignment
0:15
stuff then there's two of these massive
0:18
lenses I've taken one of these apart I
0:20
think there's something like about eight
0:22
or nine Optical elements in here these
0:25
don't seem to do a great deal in terms
0:26
of electr magnification they're obiously
0:28
just about getting the image to where it
0:29
uh where it needs to be just so that
0:33
goes like that then this Optical block I
0:36
originally thought this was made of some
0:37
s crazy heavy material but it's just
0:39
really the sum of all these Optical bits
0:41
are just ridiculously heavy those lenses
0:43
are about 4 kilos each and then there's
0:45
this very heavy very solid um piece that
0:47
goes in the middle and this is so this
0:49
is the filter wheel assembly with a
0:51
hilariously oversized steper
0:53
motor driving this wheel with these very
0:57
large narrow band filters so we've got
1:00
various different shades of uh
1:03
filters there five Al together that
1:06
one's actually just showing up a silver
1:07
that's actually a a red but fairly low
1:10
transmission orangey red blue green
1:15
there's an excess cover on this side so
1:16
the filters can be accessed and changed
1:19
without taking anything else apart even
1:21
this is like ridiculous it's like solid
1:23
aluminium this is just basically a cover
1:25
the actual wavelengths of these are um
1:27
488 525 570 630 and 700 NM not sure what
1:32
the suffix on that perhaps that's the uh
1:34
the width of the spectral line say these
1:37
are very narrow band filters most of
1:39
them are you very little light through
1:41
so it's still very tight narrow band to
1:43
match the um fluoresence of the dies
1:45
they're using in the biochemical process
1:48
and obviously to reject the light that's
1:49
being fired at it from that Illuminator
1:51
box and then there's a there's a second
1:53
one of these lenses then the actual sort
1:55
of samples below that so uh very serious
1:58
amount of very uh chunky heavy Optics
2:01
okay let's take a look at this light
2:02
source made by company Lumen Dynamics
2:04
who are now part of
2:06
excelitas self-contained unit power
2:08
connector USB and this which one of the
2:11
Cable Bundle said was a TTL interface
2:14
USB wasn't used in uh the fluid
2:17
application output here and I think this
2:19
is an input for um light feedback I
2:21
don't if it's regulated or just a measur
2:23
measurement facility and the uh fiber
2:27
assembly
2:29
Square Inlet there and then there's two
2:32
outputs which have uh lens assemblies
2:35
and this small one which goes back into
2:37
that small Port just Loops out of here
2:40
straight back in So on this side we've
2:42
got the electronics which look pretty
2:44
straightforward we've got a bit of power
2:45
supply stuff over here and we've got
2:48
separate drivers for each wavelength now
2:50
interesting this is clearly been very
2:52
specifically made for this application
2:54
you I was half expecting like say some
2:56
generic drivers that could be used for a
2:58
number of different things but actually
3:00
literally specified the exact wavelength
3:02
on the PCB there is provision here for
3:04
385 NM which isn't populated but this is
3:07
clearly been designed very specifically
3:09
so these four drivers look the same but
3:10
then there's two higher power ones for
3:12
575 and
3:14
520 a slightly bigger heat sink on this
3:16
575 section there a p 24 which is
3:20
providing USB interface USB isolator the
3:23
USB interface just presents as a comport
3:26
I did have a quick look but I didn't
3:27
actually get anything sensible um I did
3:29
dump the Pi code out and there's a few
3:31
you a few sort of commands that you
3:32
could see in text but I didn't actually
3:34
manage to get it working properly I
3:36
found some software for related version
3:38
but it didn't seem to want to talk to it
3:39
but um I say that wasn't used for the
3:41
original application it might be quite
3:42
interesting to get try and get the Run
3:44
hours count out of it and the TTL
3:46
interface looks fairly straightforward
3:48
we've got positions for six opto
3:50
isolators but only five five are
3:52
installed so that corresponds with the
3:54
unused thing so I think this hopefully
3:56
should be as simple as just providing a
3:57
ttrl signal for each color to uh enable
4:00
it a big heat sink here which is there I
4:03
think there's like a big S of metal
4:04
plate through the middle of this that
4:05
all the leads are mounted on the other
4:07
side so this is heat sinking it with a
4:09
air flow from a uh just a fan in here
4:13
obviously don't have the air flow
4:14
anywhere near the Optics so conduction
4:17
cool through to this plate that's then
4:18
uh air cooled got some pots which are
4:21
presumably power
4:22
adjustments okay let's take a look at
4:24
the other side which is uh much more
4:27
interesting see we've got some uh very
4:31
uh neatly Twisted cable assemblies there
4:35
a bunch of leads so we've got one here
4:37
475 up here 430 NM 630 575 and 520
4:44
filters and dcro mirrors a quick way to
4:48
see what's white is if we just shine
4:49
some white light through
4:51
here not sure how it is is to see on the
4:54
camera but shining white light we do
4:55
actually get a bit of red a bit of blue
4:57
some yellow here so the obstacle path
5:00
575 it goes sort of here bounces off
5:03
this mirror and goes out the 520 goes
5:07
sort of down here across here and up
5:09
there 630 goes basically straight
5:13
through
5:15
430 goes across there down there along
5:17
there and the 475 goes down here and
5:20
left this is the light sensing thing
5:22
think here there's just a um I think
5:24
there a photo diode or other sensor
5:26
haven't actually taken that off and
5:28
everything's fixed down to this chunk of
5:31
aluminium which acts as the heat
5:32
spreader that then conducts the heat to
5:33
the back side for the heat
5:35
sink and the actual lead packages all
5:38
look fairly similar except for this one
5:41
on the 575 which looks quite a bit more
5:44
substantial big spay
5:46
Terminals and the interface for this
5:48
turned out to be extremely simple it's
5:50
literally a 5V TTL level to enable each
5:54
color doesn't seem to be any tensity
5:56
control but there are some additional
5:58
pins on that connector that weren't used
5:59
in the through time thing so maybe
6:01
there's some extra lines that control
6:02
that I couldn't find any data on this uh
6:05
unit and the um their current product
6:07
range is quite significantly different
6:09
so we've got the uh blue these
6:13
might may well be saturating the camera
6:16
so they might look a bit weird so that's
6:17
the 430
6:18
blue the 575
6:24
yellow uh
6:26
475 light blue
6:29
the uh 520
6:31
green and the uh 630 red now one
6:36
interesting thing I noticed for the
6:39
575 it's actually it's actually using a
6:42
white lead and then filtering it rather
6:44
than using all the other ones are using
6:46
leads which are the fundamental colors
6:47
but uh this is actually doing white and
6:50
it's a combination of this filter and
6:52
the dichroic mirrors that are turning to
6:55
Yellow if we take the filter out and a
6:57
lot of the a lot of the um blue content
7:00
is going this way the red is going
7:02
straight through these two mirrors so
7:05
this is clearly not reflecting much of
7:08
that so we end up with the yellow coming
7:10
out of uh out of there which is a fairly
7:14
light yellow color which you don't
7:16
really see from high intensity leads so
7:19
that's clearly why they've used the
7:20
white to uh do this power consumption of
7:23
the white is pretty high so going up to
7:25
about 2 and 1 half amps on that color
7:27
whereas most of the other colors are
7:28
only drawing half an amp or so at 24
7:30
volts the uh the green is up to about
7:32
1.2 but say this thing is uh much
7:35
brighter and if you actually run all the
7:38
colors at the same time you get a fairly
7:41
reasonable um looking white coming out
7:43
of it and one thing you might just be
7:45
out to notice is there is some sort
7:46
color banding around here that's not
7:49
getting uh everything s completely
7:51
concentric and I think that's where this
7:53
fiber optic thing comes
7:58
in I'll
8:00
get a couple of Fairly accurately shaped
8:04
very sort of uniform color and looking
8:06
at What's um inside here we've basically
8:09
just got this Square Rod so this is
8:12
clearly yeah the lights just bouncing
8:13
off all the all the various sides to um
8:16
get a nice uniform illumination uh this
8:19
back bit looks like it's all potted so
8:21
nothing I really do to get in there I
8:24
think this is fiber so I have come
8:26
across um cables like this which are
8:27
liquid fill but just looking through the
8:30
end of this it's probably a bit hard to
8:31
see it does look like there fiber ends
8:34
going going on there and so there's this
8:36
feedback thing which is just obviously
8:39
compensating for the any light losses
8:41
through here to get an accurate
8:43
representation of uh the light that's
8:45
been launched out of these two
8:47
fibers and you see uh
8:49
these have got this sort of trapezium
8:54
shape light guides again it's like a
8:56
sort of acrylic or glass light guide
9:00
guess projected just to make the right
9:03
rectangular
9:04
shape and look at this Center assembly
9:07
um the light output doesn't uh change
9:10
whether you feed this in or not so it's
9:11
clear not doing any internal Clos Loop
9:14
control obviously there may well be some
9:16
facility for it to do that but it's not
9:17
being used in this
9:19
application and so this output just
9:21
produces a voltage on the uh outle
9:24
connector proportional to the amount of
9:26
light that's present so there's a little
9:28
diffuser in the back there
9:30
and then there's just some kind of uh
9:33
Optical sensor looks like a
9:35
chip looking at the lead it's a very
9:37
small package on the PCB with this lens
9:40
assembly over the top and these look
9:43
like they're actually on a copper
9:44
Metalized PCB for maximum thermal
9:47
performance and yeah it's a very small
9:49
package looks like it's a ceramic
9:51
package and there's a thermister there
9:53
for temperature monitoring this is the
9:56
475 blue one this is the 520 need to
9:59
Green which is uh rather different OB
10:02
it's a much bigger D with lots of bond
10:04
wise but also this looks like it's using
10:05
a phosphor if I shine a blue light at it
10:08
lights up green so this is actually a
10:10
phosphor conversion green lead which
10:12
I've I've come across before they want
10:15
that specific wavelength so they may be
10:17
easier to tune a phosphor than tune the
10:20
um semiconductor material to get the uh
10:23
right right wavelength from the lead
10:24
directly uh red 630 similar size to the
10:28
blue one or does seem to have a uh a
10:31
lens on top of it there is a sort of red
10:33
coloring to
10:35
the die but that doesn't appear to be
10:38
fluorescent as far as I can
10:39
tell and the white one again a little
10:41
bit different sort of much higher
10:43
current
10:46
connectors a makeer name on that
10:48
connector flot light not sure if that's
10:52
the connector or the lead
10:54
itself and obviously with the phosphor
10:56
and I'd imagine that phosphor may well
10:58
be tuned to get the maximum to the uh 5
11:01
cenm and actually this white one looks
11:04
like a St fairly standard product I just
11:06
found it in Mouse made by luminous
11:09
devices in fact actually I think all
11:11
these are based on various luminous
11:13
devices modules and they're you take
11:17
looks like they taking the nearest
11:18
wavelength and then just using these
11:19
filters to clean it up to get a precise
11:22
uh spectral line out of it so quite a
11:25
nice neat and um extreme
11:30
bright light source uh sure I've got any
11:33
particular use for it so I think this
11:35
might end up on
11:36
eBay but uh very pretty to look out and
11:40
without the uh risk of burning your eyes
11:43
out like you do with lasers so I thought
11:45
it would be interesting to try and
11:46
figure out the runtime of this things
11:48
like this we usually keep some sort
11:49
record of runtime cuz leads degrade over
11:51
time I couldn't get any software to work
11:52
through the USB face but then had a
11:54
thought probably going to be writing the
11:55
runtime periodically to the e s prom so
11:58
I just just scope up that and noticed it
12:00
was doing right every 5 minutes so I
12:02
just ran it for a while periodically
12:04
reading the E squ I just held the pick
12:05
in in reset and um put clip over to read
12:07
the square prom and found it was writing
12:10
one location per color every 5 minutes
12:12
so if one color was on it would write
12:14
that location every 5 minutes and just
12:16
increment it by one so after doing a few
12:18
tests with different colors of different
12:19
time periods it looked extremely
12:21
straightforward it's like a four bite
12:22
count for each color looking at the
12:24
original data that was in it all the
12:26
colors apart from Green were reading
12:28
zero and the green was reading four
12:30
indicating a total 20 minutes run time
12:32
ever if it was turned on run for a short
12:34
time then turned off that might not have
12:36
been counted but even so indicates this
12:37
thing wasn't used a great deal the whole
12:40
s process of doing a run can be several
12:42
hours but it'll only be doing probably
12:43
the Imaging at the end of that so you
12:46
wouldn't expect to be running for a long
12:47
time but say a single color for 20
12:50
minutes over its whole lifetime does
12:52
seem a little bit on the low side okay
12:55
let's look at the camera un fortunately
12:57
I managed to not record any sound when I
12:58
did this it's also a couple of months
13:00
ago so there's going to be a few details
13:02
that I've forgotten so I'm just going to
13:04
dub this over the original footage so um
13:07
take the lid off see this massive great
13:10
heat sink so this is a pel cool camera
13:12
we've got this blower fan producing a
13:14
fair amount of air flow through
13:16
it the connector here there's the ccds
13:19
mounted on the board on the
13:24
right this unplugs so we've got a bit of
13:27
power supply stuff on here
13:29
USB interface I think that's the Cyprus
13:32
microcontroller High speeded USB
13:34
interface there's a zyink spon fpga some
13:40
RAM and there's a couple of ATD
13:42
converters can't quite read what those
13:45
those are but anal
13:47
devices um little bit of bodgery around
13:51
here extra decoupling obviously they
13:53
have having some noise issues this is
13:55
around the ram chip quite a lot of extra
13:57
capacitors been added there
13:59
uh there's a couple of amplifiers prior
14:01
to the HD converter buffers or Andor
14:05
amplifiers taking the CCD
14:08
signal um bit more power spy stuff here
14:11
this is probably all to do with
14:12
generating the various CCD bias voltages
14:14
they uh need quite a lot of exotic
14:18
voltages next board down is just a
14:20
shield and an interconnect
14:24
boardly shielding the power supply stuff
14:26
from some the more sensitive an log
14:28
stuff
14:31
and this is the bottom board which is
14:32
just all power supply
14:34
stuff as you can see tons of capacitors
14:37
or Transformer in
14:42
there and this is the CCD which is a uh
14:47
very impressive thing this is a kf50 100
14:50
originally by true sense then codec
14:53
there ON
14:54
Semiconductor it's 50 megapixels uh the
14:58
only price I could find was this one
15:00
5,000 bucks and the architecture you can
15:03
see there actually two separate halves
15:04
which explains the Dual AZ converters
15:06
and two amplifiers it's literally split
15:08
down the middle and duplicated so it's
15:10
outputting two streams in parallel just
15:13
to keep the bandwidth sensible and it's
15:15
got this amazing um diffraction effects
15:18
it's got micro lenses over the pixel so
15:20
there's there's a bit more Optics going
15:22
on than on a normal
15:25
sensor few more bodges on the CCD board
15:28
including this wire which isn't really
15:29
tacked down very well which is a bit uh
15:32
bit of a mess quite a few bits around
15:34
this board where they've uh tacked
15:36
various bits on which is not super
15:38
impressive looks like CCD drivers on the
15:40
left with those 3 ohm um damping
15:43
resistors on the
15:47
output get a few more little bodges
15:50
around here some of
15:52
the and there's this separator the
15:54
silica gel to keep the moisture down but
15:56
there's this separator that actually
15:58
appears to be cut from piece of
15:59
antistatic
16:04
bag and this sort of thermal block on
16:06
top of this stack of three pel Cola
16:12
modules so as with any Stacks they get
16:16
um larger as they go back towards the
16:18
heat sink because each P's got to not
16:20
only take the heat from the previous but
16:21
also the waste heat which is quite
16:27
significant you see a little temperature
16:29
sensor here that copper block which
16:32
makes contact with the back of the
16:37
CCD and this's the back of the
16:40
pelas this then contacts the heat sink
16:44
on the uh rear there a few thermal pads
16:46
as well for some of the other power
16:47
components on this
16:51
PCB okay I've connected this uh camera
16:54
up I found some drivers on the disc that
16:56
seem to work under Windows 7 couldn't
16:58
get to install under Windows 11 though
17:01
um in the absence of any sort of lens or
17:03
being bothered to the proper amount I've
17:04
just put some f over it and put a little
17:06
pin in there to make a pinhole lens and
17:08
software gives a few options I'm not
17:11
entirely sure what all these are there's
17:12
obviously a clock frequency 22 MHz low
17:15
gain and with PFG no idea what that is
17:19
something something game programmable
17:20
Something game perhaps ver exposure
17:23
types I think focus is just like a
17:25
continuous grab until you tell it to
17:27
stop not entirely sure all these options
17:30
are obviously exposure time uh triggers
17:33
there ex external hardware trigger inut
17:35
you just trigger using a um thing on
17:37
screen so the resolution is 8176 by
17:40
6132 and you can actually bin those
17:42
where you combine multiple pixels to get
17:46
increased gain at the expense of lower
17:48
resolution down this is a 10sec exposure
17:51
obviously of the pin hole it's very uh
17:53
intensitive so we just stand still now
17:56
downloading it there's the uh exposure
17:59
so when it's
18:01
um there's a little status thing down
18:03
here so that tells you the um exposure
18:07
[Applause]
18:09
time it's this is just it
18:15
downloading um it is quite I'm seeing
18:18
quite a lot like smearing I think that I
18:20
don't know whether that's just due to
18:21
pixels overloading or something else I
18:24
mean yeah it's not it's not um out of
18:26
the question that there's something not
18:27
totally right about this camera
18:28
certainly was bodge wise on there um I
18:31
don't I'd imagine a camera like this
18:32
it's got a fairly narrow range of
18:34
intensities that it's happy with I'm not
18:36
going to spend a great deal of time on
18:38
this if you're interested in this camera
18:40
maybe for astronomy or something and
18:42
happy to sort of take the risk of it may
18:44
not be uh perfect I'll um I think I'll
18:47
stick this on eBay along with the
18:48
Illuminator I'll put a link down in the
18:50
description to the listing take your
18:52
chances to grab a bargain so for example
18:54
here we see this vertical streaking so
18:56
I'm not sure how normal that is this is
18:58
on fairly bright scene looking out the
19:02
window if I cut the exposure time down
19:04
on that it's now 1 second
19:07
exposure again most of the image
19:09
disappears again this is looks like it's
19:11
possibly over still overloading here go
19:14
that go down to say say quarter a
19:16
second so again I think there might be
19:19
some Auto gain control going on here um
19:21
this is with the PFG option let's try
19:23
turning that off and see what
19:25
happens so I'm not sure this is actually
19:27
more streaking or which just it's
19:29
cranked up the gain all the dis display
19:31
gray scale to show what um you know the
19:33
range of things that it's captured
19:36
there's one of one of 12 things in the
19:38
software there's um you can see of you
19:40
can't seem to read out the temperature
19:42
of the pelta cooler but you can set the
19:44
temperature and if you said it's a
19:46
different temperature you see the power
19:48
consumption jump up running the cooler
19:50
to get the temperature you requested but
19:52
I can't see anything anywhere that tells
19:54
you whether the cool is at the at the
19:56
temperature other than the power
19:57
consumption going down and there's no
19:59
temperature read out
20:03
here and just some yeah this is just
20:05
sort of very basic software I'm sure
20:07
there's like an API for more
20:09
sophisticated
20:10
applications but so if you know anything
20:12
more about these cameras please um stick
20:14
in the
20:15
comments um incidentally when I was
20:18
editing I didn't notice there was a bent
20:19
pin on the um CCD but I did fix that
20:22
before doing these tests and also
20:24
reactivated the um silica gel desicant
20:26
cuz I noticed it was uh I was getting
20:28
bit of condensation on the window but um
20:31
yeah so a couple of uh interesting but
20:34
maybe not particularly uh useful pieces
20:37
of Kit except for someone that's got a
20:38
very specific use so um I'll stick a
20:42
I'll stick these on eBay put a link in
20:44
the description and say hopefully
20:45
someone could actually make some uh good
20:47
use of these things
Example Output:
**Abstract:**
This video presents Part 2 of a teardown focusing on the optical components of a Fluidigm Polaris biotechnology instrument, specifically the multi-wavelength illuminator and the high-resolution CCD camera.
The Lumen Dynamics illuminator unit is examined in detail, revealing its construction using multiple high-power LEDs (430nm, 475nm, 520nm, 575nm, 630nm) combined via dichroic mirrors and filters. A square fiber optic rod is used to homogenize the light. A notable finding is the use of a phosphor-converted white LED filtered to achieve the 575nm output. The unit features simple TTL activation for each color, conduction cooling, and internal homogenization optics. Analysis of its EEPROM suggests extremely low operational runtime.
The camera module teardown showcases a 50 Megapixel ON Semiconductor KAF-50100 CCD sensor with micro-lenses, cooled by a multi-stage Peltier stack. The control electronics include an FPGA and a USB interface. Significant post-manufacturing modifications ("bodges") are observed on the camera's circuit boards. Basic functional testing using vendor software and a pinhole lens confirms image capture but reveals prominent vertical streaking artifacts, the cause of which remains uncertain (potential overload, readout artifact, or fault).
**Exploring the Fluidigm Polaris: A Detailed Look at its High-End Optics and Camera System**
* **0:00 High-End Optics:** The system utilizes heavy, high-quality lenses and mirrors for precise imaging, weighing around 4 kilos each.
* **0:49 Narrow Band Filters:** A filter wheel with five narrow band filters (488, 525, 570, 630, and 700 nm) ensures accurate fluorescence detection and rejection of excitation light.
* **2:01 Customizable Illumination:** The Lumen Dynamics light source offers five individually controllable LED wavelengths (430, 475, 520, 575, 630 nm) with varying power outputs. The 575nm yellow LED is uniquely achieved using a white LED with filtering.
* **3:45 TTL Control:** The light source is controlled via a simple TTL interface, enabling easy on/off switching for each LED color.
* **12:55 Sophisticated Camera:** The system includes a 50-megapixel Kodak KAI-50100 CCD camera with a Peltier cooling system for reduced noise.
* **14:54 High-Speed Data Transfer:** The camera features dual analog-to-digital converters to manage the high data throughput of the 50-megapixel sensor, which is effectively two 25-megapixel sensors operating in parallel.
* **18:11 Possible Issues:** The video creator noted some potential issues with the camera, including image smearing.
* **18:11 Limited Dynamic Range:** The camera's sensor has a limited dynamic range, making it potentially challenging to capture scenes with a wide range of brightness levels.
* **11:45 Low Runtime:** Internal data suggests the system has seen minimal usage, with only 20 minutes of recorded runtime for the green LED.
* **20:38 Availability on eBay:** Both the illuminator and camera are expected to be listed for sale on eBay.
Here is the real transcript. What would be a good group of people to review this topic? Please summarize provide a summary like they would:
00:00:07 Hey, it's Steve Eisman and we're going
00:00:07 to talk about AI today with our guest.
00:00:10 This is a topic that we have explored
00:00:13 for many, many months. It is crucial to
00:00:16 the future of the US economy. Recently,
00:00:19 hyperscalers have announced that they
00:00:21 are increasing their budgets enormously.
00:00:25 The top four hyperscalers are going to
00:00:27 literally spend $650 billion dollar
00:00:30 alone on tech stuff all related to AI.
00:00:34 The future of the US economy is really
00:00:36 at stake. And a few weeks ago we had on
00:00:40 Gary Marcus who's a big critic of LLMs
00:00:43 and argues that they are losing their
00:00:45 efficaciousness. And so I wanted a
00:00:47 second opinion because this is just too
00:00:49 important a topic. And so today we have
00:00:52 Columbia professor Danny Guetta who as
00:00:54 you'll see agrees with Gary on certain
00:00:57 points but disagrees on others and we're
00:01:00 going to explore all of that and
00:01:02 afterwards I'll be back to talk about
00:01:04 what we've learned.
00:01:10 Hi, this is Steve Eisman and welcome to
00:01:10 another episode of the real Eisman
00:01:12 playbook. And today we're going to
00:01:14 explore the world of AI, but not per se
00:01:17 from a business perspective, but from
00:01:19 the within the guts of AI, you know, is
00:01:22 AI a bubble? Is it going to change the
00:01:24 world? You know, these are questions
00:01:25 that we've explored over in our podcast
00:01:28 over the last many, many months. And to
00:01:31 help us go further is our guest,
00:01:33 Professor Daniel Gua, who was a
00:01:35 professor at the Columbia Business
00:01:37 School. Daniel, welcome.
00:01:39 >> Thank you so much for having me, Steve.
00:01:40 This is going to be great. Really
00:01:41 excited for the conversation. really
00:01:43 excited. So before we get started, why
00:01:44 don't you just give us a little bit
00:01:46 about your background to explain why
00:01:48 you're here?
00:01:48 >> Yeah. No, absolutely. I mean, my whole
00:01:50 sort of career has been working on kind
00:01:52 of AI even before it was cool. Uh so I
00:01:55 started off doing my PhD in datadriven
00:01:58 supply chain management a while back and
00:01:59 I was really lucky. I got to spend some
00:02:01 time at Amazon doing that which
00:02:02 obviously is a great place to study uh
00:02:04 supply chains. After that PhD, I went to
00:02:06 work at Palanteer Technologies. Um,
00:02:09 yeah, I was not a US citizen at the
00:02:10 time, so they didn't let me close to the
00:02:12 government stuff, but I did get to work
00:02:14 a lot on their commercial business and
00:02:15 that just involved going around the
00:02:17 world working with companies in just a
00:02:18 whole range of industries and helping
00:02:20 them figure out how to do what they do
00:02:22 better, but using data, AI, analytics,
00:02:25 that kind of stuff. And then around
00:02:26 eight years ago, uh, the dean of the
00:02:29 business school at Colombia, uh, Cassis
00:02:31 McLaras, he kind of already back then
00:02:33 had the foresight to realize that this
00:02:34 kind of data analytics wave was, you
00:02:37 know, not going anywhere, that it was
00:02:38 here to stay. And so he asked me if I
00:02:40 would come back to Colombia to kind of
00:02:41 help build up the data and analytics
00:02:43 curriculum. And that's kind of what I've
00:02:44 been doing there. And, you know, I get
00:02:45 to work with companies, help them figure
00:02:47 out how to get value out of AI. I get to
00:02:49 teach classes on AI, operations, coding,
00:02:52 all that kind of stuff. And I'm very
00:02:53 lucky to get to teach our MBA students,
00:02:56 engineering students, executives, but
00:02:58 then also um we even launched this open
00:03:00 program with Wall Street prep. So now
00:03:02 anyone can take that program. The reason
00:03:03 I mentioned it is because we were
00:03:05 introduced by a student of mine from
00:03:06 that program. So hat trip to Ari. Thank
00:03:08 you for the introduction. Yeah.
00:03:10 >> So let's let's start with um the big
00:03:13 topic which is large language models.
00:03:16 Before we talk about how efficacious
00:03:18 they are, you know, when when you watch
00:03:22 business news, they all they're really
00:03:24 talking about is how many chips are
00:03:26 being bought? Who's who's ahead? Is it
00:03:29 Google? Is it OpenAI? But let's go to
00:03:31 let's get to basics. What exactly is a
00:03:34 large language model? And how does it
00:03:37 work?
00:03:37 >> It's a great question and I think if I
00:03:39 may, I think it makes sense to even take
00:03:40 one step back and to say what even is
00:03:42 AI? Like I think large language models
00:03:44 have almost become synonymous with AI in
00:03:46 people's minds, but they're not. I mean,
00:03:48 that is not the only thing AI is. And I
00:03:50 think it's actually helpful to think of
00:03:52 two different kinds of AI. You have kind
00:03:54 of predictive AI that you also hear
00:03:56 called machine learning or predictive
00:03:57 analytics. And that's been around for a
00:03:59 while and very successful for a while.
00:04:01 And then you have Gen AI, so including
00:04:02 those large language models that have
00:04:04 been uh kind of more recent. And it's
00:04:06 actually really helpful to dig in to
00:04:07 what each of those two mean because as
00:04:10 we'll see it's really like understanding
00:04:12 what those two things are really makes a
00:04:13 difference to understanding how large
00:04:15 language models work and how they sort
00:04:16 of fit into the broader landscape. So if
00:04:18 we start with this predictive AI been
00:04:20 around for a while since the 80s or '9s
00:04:22 and and the idea really is to just say
00:04:24 can we look at a data set can we
00:04:26 identify patterns in the data set and
00:04:28 can we kind of do something useful with
00:04:30 those patterns and so my favorite
00:04:31 example is uh the Zestimate. You know,
00:04:33 when you go on Zillow and you look at a
00:04:35 property, it gives you the the estimated
00:04:37 price of what that property would be. I
00:04:39 always joke with my students, right?
00:04:40 There's like all kinds of lofty reasons
00:04:41 you might use it, like real estate
00:04:43 development to buy a house, sell a
00:04:44 house. Really, people are using it to
00:04:45 find out how rich their neighbors are.
00:04:47 So, that that number, right, that you
00:04:48 just get when you go,
00:04:49 >> how expensive is the house that's next
00:04:51 door to me?
00:04:51 >> How expensive is the house that's next
00:04:52 door to me? That's exactly right. So,
00:04:53 you know, that is a machine learning
00:04:55 model. That is a predictive AI model. It
00:04:57 uses stuff about the property to predict
00:05:00 what it price is going to be. And if you
00:05:02 were thinking, you know, how does it
00:05:03 work? Obviously, it's quite complex. But
00:05:05 if you were to build a slightly simple
00:05:06 version, maybe just with houses on
00:05:08 upware site, what could you do? Maybe
00:05:10 you'd look at the square footage of the
00:05:11 property plus, you know, the number of
00:05:13 bedrooms, number of bathrooms, and then
00:05:15 maybe you'd say every square foot is
00:05:17 worth 2,000 bucks, every bathroom is
00:05:19 worth 10,000 bucks, whatever. Add them
00:05:21 all up.
00:05:22 >> It'd be a fairly simple model.
00:05:23 >> Fairly simple model. Now,
00:05:25 what makes it a machine learning model
00:05:27 rather than just like a sum you come up
00:05:29 with yourself is the fact that the way
00:05:31 Zillow creates it is they train it using
00:05:33 historical data. And what do I mean by
00:05:35 that? They're going to take a huge trove
00:05:37 of data, right, from uh uh previous
00:05:40 properties that have sold. They're going
00:05:41 to look at data about those properties
00:05:43 and they're going to start with totally
00:05:44 random numbers for the value of each
00:05:46 element. So, they might begin by saying
00:05:48 a square foot is worth $1. Totally
00:05:49 incorrect. That's going to give really
00:05:51 bad predictions. But then they tweak
00:05:53 that number, okay, until it fits the
00:05:55 data as closely as possible, right? And
00:05:57 that's absolutely fundamental as we'll
00:05:59 see later to even how large language
00:06:00 models are trained. And just in
00:06:02 terminology, this is called training.
00:06:04 The kind of tweaking of those numbers
00:06:06 and you often hear something called
00:06:07 parameters or weights. That is what
00:06:09 those numbers are. They're kind of
00:06:10 parameters or weights of those of those
00:06:12 models. Uh and so you're tweaking them
00:06:14 as you sort of create uh create the
00:06:15 model.
00:06:16 >> Okay. So that's been around for a long
00:06:18 time.
00:06:18 >> That's been around for a long time.
00:06:19 Absolutely. And just it's worth just
00:06:21 saying it's been around for a long time,
00:06:22 but I think today if you tell me like if
00:06:24 you look at the value generated by AI,
00:06:26 what percentage of it comes from that,
00:06:28 it's huge and it's still massive. Every
00:06:30 time you swipe a credit card, fraud
00:06:31 analytics, uh figuring out if someone
00:06:34 should be able to borrow money, sort of
00:06:35 uh uh you know, uh creditworthiness, um
00:06:37 when you order a lift, right, how much
00:06:39 it should cost and what the length of
00:06:40 the trip is going to be, all that is
00:06:41 really sort of based on that AI. So, you
00:06:44 know, how's that different from the new
00:06:45 kind of AI, the Gen AI, the LLMs? The
00:06:47 problem with that old kind of AI is that
00:06:49 it only really works with numbers, with
00:06:51 numerical data, stuff you can put in
00:06:52 Excel. So, thinking back to this
00:06:54 estimate, you can use the square
00:06:55 footage, the number of bedrooms, number
00:06:57 of bathrooms, but what if you want to
00:06:59 use the image, right, the picture of the
00:07:01 house, or you want to use the text that
00:07:02 you see inside the description.
00:07:04 >> You can't really put that in a model
00:07:06 like that because you can't multiply
00:07:07 text. It's not a number, right? You
00:07:08 can't do anything with it. and uh uh you
00:07:10 know uh so that kind of was a limitation
00:07:12 of those uh models and really that's
00:07:15 where the deep learning the genai
00:07:17 revolution sort of came along and
00:07:18 overcame that limitation right so this
00:07:21 was maybe in the mid2010s I mean it's
00:07:23 started at various times but let's say
00:07:25 sort of the mid2010s this new field
00:07:26 called deep learning came along that
00:07:28 introduced these models called deep
00:07:30 neural networks and large language
00:07:32 models are an example of those deep
00:07:33 neural networks and what they can do is
00:07:36 just like as a human you're if we're
00:07:38 reading a piece of text, we kind of
00:07:41 understand what it says. We get kind of
00:07:42 the concept behind the piece of text.
00:07:44 Those models can also do that, right?
00:07:46 And the way they do that is by using an
00:07:49 enormous number of parameters, an
00:07:50 enormous amount of data. And maybe we'll
00:07:52 get into how that works, right? Sort of
00:07:54 mysteriously, but they're effectively
00:07:55 using just enormous amounts of data to
00:07:58 understand what's going on behind the
00:07:59 text. But I think it's important to
00:08:01 point out, and you discussed this with
00:08:02 Gary Marcus a few weeks ago, and we'll
00:08:03 touch on it today again, maybe
00:08:05 understanding is a misnomer, right?
00:08:07 because all they're doing is they're
00:08:09 training themselves on historical data
00:08:11 and trying to mimic those patterns. And
00:08:12 so is that understanding? Is that not
00:08:14 understanding? And maybe we'll we'll get
00:08:16 into that, but that's how these models
00:08:17 work. And sort of they overcame that
00:08:19 limitation of machine learning because
00:08:21 they're now able to use all this
00:08:22 unstructured data.
00:08:23 >> So
00:08:25 what can a large language model do
00:08:30 that the old probabilistic AI can't do?
00:08:35 Give us an example.
00:08:36 >> Yeah. So first of all, I don't know that
00:08:38 it necessarily makes sense to say large
00:08:41 language model versus probabilistic AI.
00:08:43 These large language models are a kind
00:08:45 of probabilistic AI, right? I mean they
00:08:47 they sort of, you know, are a much
00:08:48 bigger version. They have many more
00:08:50 parameters. They have many more sort of
00:08:51 uh so that's the first thing to point
00:08:53 out, but generally it is that idea of
00:08:55 looking at completely unstructured data.
00:08:57 I mean that is sort of you know their
00:08:59 magic. that is what they're able to do.
00:09:00 A historical sort of one of those
00:09:02 historical probabilistic AI, machine
00:09:04 learning, predictive AI models couldn't
00:09:06 look at a piece of text and understand
00:09:08 what it says. Now, people had ways to
00:09:09 get around that. They would say like,
00:09:11 oh, if I want to understand a piece of
00:09:12 text, let me look at the number of happy
00:09:14 words in the piece of text. Like, you
00:09:16 know, if the text says wonderful and
00:09:18 amazing and fantabulous and whatever,
00:09:20 then that means it's probably positive.
00:09:21 But those were very sort of uh
00:09:23 simplistic ways of looking at text.
00:09:25 these large language models can actually
00:09:27 look at text and kind of almost
00:09:28 understand it.
00:09:29 >> So why do large language models
00:09:33 hallucinate? And let's talk about
00:09:35 exactly what's a what is a
00:09:37 hallucination?
00:09:38 >> That's a great question. If you'll allow
00:09:39 me, this is going to be a very long
00:09:41 answer, but I think to kind of get to
00:09:43 kind of I I want because I've, you know,
00:09:45 I gave an example about a recent
00:09:47 hallucination which I just discussed
00:09:49 with Gary Morris, which was on the day
00:09:51 that uh Madura was taken out of
00:09:54 Venezuela, within like the first hour,
00:09:56 um people went on to chat GPT and said,
00:09:58 "What's going on with Madura getting
00:10:00 taken out of Venezuela?" And chat GPT
00:10:02 responds, "Maduro is still in
00:10:03 Venezuela." Right? Because because
00:10:06 apparently large language models have a
00:10:08 problem with novelty, but let's talk
00:10:10 about hallucination.
00:10:11 >> Let's just tell you how they work. I
00:10:12 mean, how those models work, how they
00:10:14 end up hallucinating. Long story short,
00:10:15 I'll tell you the answer already. What
00:10:17 you should be surprised by is that they
00:10:18 ever don't hallucinate, right? The fact
00:10:20 they do hallucinate is kind of, you
00:10:21 know, that's like not the surprising
00:10:22 part.
00:10:23 >> You got the right answer.
00:10:24 >> The fact they ever get it right, right,
00:10:25 is is crazy. So, okay, how do these
00:10:27 models work? I'm going to explain it at
00:10:28 various levels. Let's start at the top
00:10:29 level. This is something your listeners
00:10:31 may have heard already, but it's worth
00:10:32 repeating. These are just autocomplete
00:10:34 engines, right? So, I don't know if
00:10:36 you've ever played a parlor game where
00:10:38 you say a word, the next person says a
00:10:40 word, the next person says a word, and
00:10:41 you kind of build up a story together.
00:10:43 Yes, that is basically what they're
00:10:45 doing. So, for example, if you ask a
00:10:47 model, you know, what is the capital of
00:10:48 Argentina? It's going to look at the
00:10:49 question, it's going to say, huh, I
00:10:51 wonder what the next word would be.
00:10:53 Maybe the capital of Argentina. And it
00:10:56 would say, oh, buenos might be the next
00:10:58 word. And then, and this is key, it's
00:11:00 going to look back at the full
00:11:01 conversation. What is the capital of
00:11:03 Argentina, Buenos? And then it's going
00:11:05 to say, if that was a useful
00:11:07 conversation between a chatbot and a
00:11:09 human, what would the next word after
00:11:11 that be? And it would say iris. And it
00:11:12 would continue until it decides, I'm
00:11:14 done. Now, by the way, just a side note,
00:11:17 unrelated to hallucinations, but this is
00:11:18 why part of the reason they're so
00:11:20 expensive is every time you want the
00:11:23 next word, you have to reprocess the
00:11:25 entire conversation from the beginning,
00:11:27 right? Which is kind of wild. So if
00:11:29 you've already spoken to it for like you
00:11:30 know you know 10,000 words to generate
00:11:33 the 10,000 and1 word it has to reprocess
00:11:36 all those 10,000 words through the
00:11:38 model. So that's kind of crazy.
00:11:38 >> That eats up a lot of energy.
00:11:40 >> Eats up a lot of energy, which is why,
00:11:41 you know, I mean, we could talk about
00:11:42 energy. Certainly get certainly get
00:11:44 energy.
00:11:44 >> But okay, so now I understand why it
00:11:46 eats up so much energy.
00:11:47 >> That's why eat up so much energy. Now,
00:11:48 how does it do that? How does it know
00:11:49 what the next word is? And the key
00:11:51 concept you need to get, and I promise
00:11:52 you this is as technical as this gets,
00:11:54 but I think it's just it really helps to
00:11:55 kind of know this is a concept called an
00:11:57 embedding. And what an embedding is is
00:12:00 you take a word and you basically turn
00:12:02 it to numbers. Right? You remember I
00:12:03 said that the limitation of those
00:12:04 machine learning models was they
00:12:06 couldn't look at words. Well, those
00:12:07 embeddings convert the words to numbers
00:12:09 so the computers can understand them.
00:12:11 Okay? And maybe the easiest way to kind
00:12:12 of get what an embedding is, imagine you
00:12:14 take uh every word in the English
00:12:16 language and you give it two scores.
00:12:18 >> The first score is how alive it is. So
00:12:20 maybe a human gets a 10, a rock gets a
00:12:23 zero, uh uh I don't know, a spider gets
00:12:25 a five, a carrot gets a two. You get the
00:12:27 idea.
00:12:27 >> Yes.
00:12:28 >> And then the second score is maybe how
00:12:29 loud it is. So maybe a loud. Yeah. Maybe
00:12:32 a baby gets a 10. Maybe, you know, rock
00:12:35 gets a zero. Maybe a carrot gets a one
00:12:37 because it's like quiet, but if you
00:12:38 crunch into it, it makes a sound.
00:12:40 >> So, every word has two scores.
00:12:41 >> Every word has two scores. Now, you
00:12:42 could imagine taking those scores and
00:12:44 putting them on this kind of XYaxis,
00:12:46 right? On a piece of graph paper,
00:12:47 >> every word.
00:12:48 >> Every word based on those scores. So,
00:12:49 the x axis is how alive it is and the
00:12:51 y-axis is how loud it is.
00:12:54 >> And if you think of that piece of paper,
00:12:56 you're going to start
00:12:57 >> who gives the score.
00:12:59 >> Love the question. I promise you we're
00:13:00 getting there in like 30 seconds. This
00:13:02 is like
00:13:02 >> there's is there a referee?
00:13:04 >> Oh, so it's the key key question, right?
00:13:06 And that's the first question.
00:13:07 >> Who's making that decision?
00:13:08 >> Whenever I tell students, they always
00:13:09 ask me that question. And the answer is
00:13:11 is crazy. But we we we'll get there. So,
00:13:13 you know, you have that piece of paper,
00:13:14 you got the scores, and you can imagine
00:13:16 you're now going to get these kinds of
00:13:17 clusters, right? Like the the vegetables
00:13:18 are going to be, you know, bunched up in
00:13:20 one side, the humans are on the other
00:13:21 side, etc. And the profound thing about
00:13:23 that is that now those scores kind of
00:13:25 give you they allow the computer to look
00:13:27 at numbers and those numbers kind of
00:13:29 tell you ah I know something about the
00:13:31 word right if I tell you a word is like
00:13:33 zero on the live scale and nine on the
00:13:36 loud scale
00:13:37 >> guess what it's going to be close to the
00:13:39 cluster that contains like fogghorn and
00:13:41 bell and all these sort of loud things.
00:13:42 So it really gives you a vibe. Now to
00:13:44 your question right who the hell decides
00:13:46 these words and of course right two
00:13:48 scores is not enough in reality if you
00:13:49 want to really know a word you got to go
00:13:51 for thousands and the answer of course
00:13:53 is uh no one uh the answer is machine
00:13:56 learning so back remember this estimate
00:13:58 case you remember I told you in this
00:14:00 estimate case you don't decide how much
00:14:02 a square foot is worth or how much a
00:14:04 bathroom is worth you just give the
00:14:05 model sort of the the the the the data
00:14:08 and it figures it out it tweaks the
00:14:10 numbers until you get to a good sort of
00:14:12 result and it turns out That's what
00:14:14 happens with these embeddings. And this
00:14:16 is truly a wild idea, but have you heard
00:14:18 this fact? People say that these large
00:14:20 language models are trained using all
00:14:22 the text on the internet.
00:14:23 >> Yes,
00:14:24 >> you've heard that said. That is the
00:14:25 training data they use. So, let me
00:14:26 explain how it works. They'll take
00:14:28 something like two words, let's say like
00:14:30 king or queen, two words. Those two
00:14:32 words, if you look on all the internet,
00:14:34 often they're going to be close to each
00:14:36 other when you see king. And so the
00:14:38 algorithm is going to realize, wait a
00:14:39 second, those two words or my x and y on
00:14:42 my piece of graph paper, they should be
00:14:43 close to each other because they often
00:14:45 occur together. And so they're going to
00:14:46 tweak the scores by a few decimal points
00:14:48 to get to get them closer to each other.
00:14:50 >> On the other hand, a word like, I don't
00:14:52 know, Pringle and existentialism, right?
00:14:54 Probably far apart. And so they're going
00:14:55 to be tweaked to get further apart.
00:14:57 >> Okay.
00:14:57 >> And Steve, it's actually astonishing.
00:14:59 But if you do that,
00:14:59 >> so the scores are constantly changing.
00:15:01 >> Constantly changing while the model is
00:15:03 being trained. So while OpenAI is
00:15:04 training that model and amazingly if you
00:15:06 do that enough you end up with something
00:15:09 that actually captures the meaning of
00:15:10 words. So you actually get clusters of
00:15:12 words that mean the same thing. You get
00:15:14 these crazy relationships where like if
00:15:16 you look at the difference numerically
00:15:18 on the graph paper between fkaca and
00:15:20 baguette it's kind of the same
00:15:22 difference as between France and Italy.
00:15:24 So it kind of understands the concept of
00:15:27 like country, right? And by the way I
00:15:28 mentioned this before our podcast. We'll
00:15:30 put a link in the show notes, but I
00:15:31 created a little online tool that your
00:15:32 listeners if they're interested, they
00:15:34 can go actually check this out and try
00:15:35 with a bunch of words. Um, and so at a
00:15:37 high level that is sort of how a large
00:15:39 language model understands text. There's
00:15:42 another complexity which is that of
00:15:43 course one word is not enough. You want
00:15:45 words in context, right? So if I say I
00:15:48 like figs and dates, I have a date
00:15:51 tonight and what is today's date? The
00:15:53 word date means very different things.
00:15:55 And so there and just again to maybe
00:15:57 link this to something some words your
00:15:59 listeners may have heard. I don't know
00:16:00 if you've heard of something called the
00:16:02 transformer. So it's this uh uh uh uh
00:16:04 mathematical technique that Google
00:16:06 published in 2017 that was kind of a big
00:16:08 uh breakthrough. All the transformer is
00:16:10 is Google realize how to make these
00:16:12 embeddings pay attention to each other.
00:16:15 >> Okay.
00:16:15 >> Okay. So that was my big explanation. So
00:16:16 how does an LM work and how does that
00:16:18 link to hallucinations? I know you are.
00:16:19 So I promise we're getting back to it.
00:16:21 >> I'm waiting with bait and breath
00:16:23 >> on the edge of your seat. I the answer
00:16:24 is going to be a little disappointing.
00:16:25 I'm warning you. But
00:16:26 >> okay,
00:16:26 >> basically when you ask a question of an
00:16:28 LLM,
00:16:29 >> yeah,
00:16:30 >> it first take your question, it
00:16:32 converts.
00:16:33 >> I got to ask you, why was Sandy Kofax
00:16:35 such a great baseball player?
00:16:36 >> What was Sandy Kofax such a great
00:16:37 baseball?
00:16:38 >> Perfect question to ask.
00:16:39 >> You're picking someone who was born in
00:16:40 France and grew up in England. So I may
00:16:42 or may not have heard of Sandy Kofax,
00:16:43 but we're not going to tell the
00:16:44 listeners that.
00:16:45 >> Great. He was the greatest baseball
00:16:46 pitcher in the early60s.
00:16:47 >> Great baseball pitcher. Great.
00:16:48 >> Okay.
00:16:49 >> So what the model is going to do is it's
00:16:51 going to take all the machinery I just
00:16:52 described. It's going to get this big
00:16:54 list of numbers that captures the
00:16:56 essence of your question. So if you
00:16:58 think again of our graph paper, it's
00:17:00 going to put it in a position that kind
00:17:01 of implies, oh, this is the vibe of the
00:17:03 question that Steve just asked. And then
00:17:05 it's literally going to say, what are
00:17:07 the words around? What are the words?
00:17:08 >> What are the words around Sandy Kof's
00:17:09 greatest picture?
00:17:10 >> Exactly. What are the sort of And then
00:17:12 it's going to pick one of those words
00:17:13 and then it's going to respond with that
00:17:15 one
00:17:15 >> and then it'll add another one.
00:17:17 >> But it's going to go back to the
00:17:18 beginning and search again and then add
00:17:19 another one.
00:17:21 >> Create those numbers again. Look at a
00:17:23 word nearby and another one, another
00:17:24 one, another one. So to your answer, why
00:17:25 does it hallucinate? The real crazy
00:17:27 question is why does it ever not
00:17:29 hallucinate, right? All it's doing is
00:17:32 it's getting that essence of your
00:17:33 question based on all the text he's seen
00:17:35 on the internet and everything it knows
00:17:36 about where text is on the internet and
00:17:38 then it just generates the next word
00:17:40 next word and the next word.
00:17:41 >> This is not what we would think of as
00:17:43 thinking.
00:17:43 >> Well, that's a absolutely amazing
00:17:45 question. Um there's actually a uh trick
00:17:48 that I love doing uh and I think this
00:17:50 really brings it home for people whether
00:17:52 this is thinking or not because you know
00:17:53 I think
00:17:54 >> take a step back a big question people
00:17:55 are asking is this going to get more
00:17:57 intelligent than humans right is this
00:17:58 going to eventually scale
00:18:02 how much can it scale is that thing so
00:18:04 >> but what you're saying is it's it's
00:18:05 almost like a miracle that you ever get
00:18:07 the right answer
00:18:07 >> exactly and I'll give you an example
00:18:09 that really shows what how much of a
00:18:11 miracle it is so if you ask a question
00:18:13 to this model and you Say, I have a bag
00:18:16 with five balls and the balls are
00:18:18 labeled A B CDE E.
00:18:19 >> Okay,
00:18:20 >> pick one at random and tell me the
00:18:22 letter on the ball.
00:18:24 So, as a human, if I ask you this,
00:18:26 >> yeah,
00:18:26 >> you could tell me I could ask a
00:18:27 10-year-old and they would tell me, "Oh,
00:18:29 well, you know, 20% of the time I'm
00:18:30 going to get A. 20% of the time I'm
00:18:32 going to get B. 20% of the time I'm
00:18:33 going to get C."
00:18:34 >> Right?
00:18:35 >> It turns out what you can do with these
00:18:36 large language model is, and you can't
00:18:38 do this on chairg.com, but if you can
00:18:40 code using something called API, you can
00:18:41 actually do this. You can ask chair GPT
00:18:44 when I ask you that question in your
00:18:46 internal LLM brain, what are the
00:18:49 probabilities you're thinking of? Like
00:18:50 what do you think the next word should
00:18:52 be? And it goes completely off the
00:18:54 rails. So Jad GBT will tell you 50% of
00:18:56 the time the answer should be C and 20%
00:18:58 of the time it should be A and 5% of the
00:19:00 time it's basically wrong. Now if you
00:19:03 think about why that is, it makes sense
00:19:05 because all chpt is doing it's taking
00:19:07 your big question, it's embedding it.
00:19:09 So, it's creating that essence, those
00:19:11 numbers, right, that that get the vibe
00:19:13 of the question. And then it's saying,
00:19:15 what is the closest sort of word that
00:19:17 maybe fits that answer, but that is not
00:19:19 how a human works. That's just not how
00:19:21 we think. It's just a very, very
00:19:23 different mode of thinking. Now, I need
00:19:24 to be clear.
00:19:25 >> It's not obvious to me that that mode of
00:19:27 thinking is in any way inferior to a
00:19:29 human mode of thinking. I mean, who
00:19:30 knows? But it's definitely different. It
00:19:32 is not the same thing. Okay. Yeah.
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00:22:36 >> So let's just explore for a second
00:22:36 um Gary Marcus for a little bit.
00:22:38 >> Yeah, totally.
00:22:39 >> Because you you watched the podcast.
00:22:40 >> I did listen to your fascinating
00:22:43 >> it was wonderful. I learned a ton. But
00:22:45 if I could maybe sum up his argument, I
00:22:48 think it would be two parts. He would
00:22:50 argue that
00:22:53 the improvements that we are getting as
00:22:56 large language mod the model that's out
00:22:58 there is we're going to keep scaling
00:23:00 large language models and they're going
00:23:02 to continue to get much much much much
00:23:04 better until we reach whatever we're
00:23:06 supposed to reach. and his his argument
00:23:10 is that we're already at a point where
00:23:12 large language models the improve the
00:23:14 marginal improvement from chap GPT5 to
00:23:18 four is less than four to three which
00:23:20 was less than 3 to two and so you're
00:23:22 getting diminishing returns and so that
00:23:23 if we're really going to take this thing
00:23:25 to where it needs to be we have to
00:23:28 go back almost to the to the drawing
00:23:30 board and and put in what he called
00:23:33 world models to to train these things on
00:23:35 much better that that that's one part of
00:23:37 his argument And his other part of his
00:23:39 argument is that given the way LLMs
00:23:41 work, they're always going to
00:23:42 hallucinate, which is a problem because
00:23:44 hallucinations are a problem because if
00:23:46 you use it, how do you know it's
00:23:47 hallucinating?
00:23:48 >> Right?
00:23:48 >> So, what do you think about all that?
00:23:51 >> I got so many thoughts. Uh, so let's
00:23:53 first I think uh, you know, just
00:23:56 definitionally for your listeners just
00:23:57 so that they sort of get where we are
00:23:59 when we say scaling a model,
00:24:00 >> right? When I describe those embeddings
00:24:02 and those transformers and those
00:24:04 parameters that you look at data and you
00:24:05 tweak the parameters scaling just means
00:24:08 more data you just create more not so
00:24:10 much well more data as well that's one
00:24:12 way of scaling it that's one dimension
00:24:13 but the other dimension is actually more
00:24:15 parameters more complexity in the
00:24:17 calculations right and that's why by the
00:24:19 way it takes so many more chips and so
00:24:21 much more energy and so on
00:24:22 >> so in other words a a word doesn't have
00:24:25 two variables two scores it might have a
00:24:27 thousand variables
00:24:28 >> that is exactly one way you could scale
00:24:30 and another way you could scale is those
00:24:31 transformers which we didn't spend too
00:24:33 long talking about but they also have
00:24:34 their own set of parameters and there's
00:24:36 many more than in the variables and the
00:24:38 words and you can add to those we don't
00:24:40 need to get into the details but
00:24:41 basically adding parameters is a big
00:24:42 thing okay so that's just the first
00:24:44 thing I want to put out there that's
00:24:45 what we mean by scaling and as you said
00:24:47 the sort of at least zit guys for a
00:24:48 while was that the more we scale the
00:24:50 better these models are going to get now
00:24:52 I do want to say one thing and Gary
00:24:53 almost touched on that in your
00:24:55 conversation and I want to you know and
00:24:56 I think he probably would have talked
00:24:57 about it further
00:24:58 >> I want to point out what we mean better
00:25:00 because we never ask like what exactly
00:25:02 does that mean better what does it mean
00:25:03 better uh better typically when a new
00:25:07 model comes out better means that it
00:25:09 performs better on a very very specific
00:25:11 set of benchmarks the computer science
00:25:13 community has a whole bunch of these
00:25:14 benchmarks that these models get tested
00:25:16 on and you know there's a bunch of
00:25:17 examples one of them is called the
00:25:18 massive multitask language understanding
00:25:20 benchmark stands for MMLU it's basically
00:25:23 you can think of it as like an SAT exam
00:25:25 you give it you give the large language
00:25:26 model this exam can it answer the
00:25:27 question so I just want to put that out
00:25:29 that you know doing well at an SAT exam
00:25:32 is not necessarily
00:25:34 it is part of intelligence but it's not
00:25:36 the only thing about intelligence and so
00:25:37 there's actually a lot of research going
00:25:39 on now on what it means to actually test
00:25:42 those models better like what other
00:25:44 benchmarks could we use that maybe are
00:25:46 uh sort of you know more revealing than
00:25:48 the current ones we're using I actually
00:25:49 have a colleague at the business school
00:25:50 Hong Namkung and I'm very fortunate to
00:25:52 get to work with him a bit he's trying
00:25:54 to build benchmarks based on like work
00:25:55 in Excel right can we give it an Excel
00:25:57 spreadsheet and can it actually build
00:25:59 the DCF or can it figure out what the
00:26:01 error is in the formula. So anyway, a
00:26:03 lot of research there on figuring out
00:26:05 how those models can sort of uh can sort
00:26:07 of uh be made uh sort of uh be tested
00:26:10 sort of better. So that's the first
00:26:11 thing I would say. Second thing I would
00:26:13 say is that you know Gary in some ways
00:26:17 I he has incredible knowledge of what
00:26:20 actual intelligence is. I mean he's done
00:26:21 so much research that's been through you
00:26:23 know his life's work. One thing that
00:26:25 mystifies me a little, someone who
00:26:27 doesn't have Gary's knowledge, is I
00:26:29 think we easily throw around phrases
00:26:30 like, "Oh, are these models going to get
00:26:32 better than humans? Are we going to get
00:26:33 super intelligence?" I'm like, I don't
00:26:35 know what that means exactly in the
00:26:37 sense of like,
00:26:37 >> well, I think they're all thinking, you
00:26:38 know, we all watch Terminator growing up
00:26:41 and we're just trying to figure out when
00:26:42 that's going to happen, we'll have to go
00:26:45 into hiding. You know, I can't actually
00:26:48 overstate this because all the people in
00:26:50 this world are like science fiction
00:26:52 geeks and they they grew up on this.
00:26:54 They take this very seriously. They're
00:26:56 sincerely worried about this.
00:26:58 >> You know, Steve, it's funny. It reminds
00:26:59 me of a Have you seen Goodwill Hunting?
00:27:02 So, you know, for those who don't know,
00:27:03 it's a movie about there's this genius
00:27:05 genius kid, but he's very led a very
00:27:07 troubled life and his therapist is
00:27:08 played by the late Robin Williams. And
00:27:10 there's this scene in that movie that I
00:27:12 just love where the therapist is sitting
00:27:14 with with with Matt Damon who's playing
00:27:16 the who's playing the kid and he's like,
00:27:17 you know,
00:27:18 >> you're so smart. If I ask you about
00:27:20 Michelangelo, you could tell me
00:27:21 everything about him, right?
00:27:22 >> But can you tell me what it smells like
00:27:24 in the Systeine Chapel? Or if I asked
00:27:26 you about love, you could like recite
00:27:28 >> a but do you know what it is to really
00:27:30 love a woman?
00:27:30 >> Exactly. So it's like it's an amazing
00:27:32 scene and sometimes I think about that
00:27:33 when it comes to large language model
00:27:34 where it's so difficult to get your
00:27:36 finger on what it means for a model to
00:27:38 be human and sure the model sort of you
00:27:40 know destroying all of us is maybe an
00:27:41 extreme version of that but there's
00:27:42 plenty of steps in between and so it's
00:27:44 kind of it's kind of hard to uh to uh to
00:27:46 define Gary clearly thinks that they
00:27:48 can't scale to sort of you know a level
00:27:51 where they have the same intelligence as
00:27:52 humans and the truth is I don't think I
00:27:54 disagree I certainly that most people I
00:27:56 respect would probably agree that the
00:27:58 current way large language models just
00:28:00 like this predict the next word, predict
00:28:01 the next word, predict the next word
00:28:03 might not scale to sort of a level of uh
00:28:05 of superhuman intelligence. But I do
00:28:07 just want to point out it's very
00:28:08 difficult to really get your finger on
00:28:11 what that means and to kind of know sort
00:28:13 of, you know, when you've uh when you've
00:28:14 reached uh uh that point. Um a few more
00:28:17 things to say here. I'll just give you
00:28:18 the headlines and you tell me if you
00:28:19 want to hear about them. Uh, another
00:28:21 thing I'd want to probably talk about is
00:28:22 the fact that, you know, I think maybe
00:28:24 we'll get there at the end, but one
00:28:25 thing we sometimes miss, you know, in a
00:28:28 conversation about is this going to get
00:28:29 super intelligent is even if it isn't,
00:28:31 >> maybe it's worthwhile anyway.
00:28:33 >> Maybe there's so, and I'm going to take
00:28:35 away the maybe from that, there is still
00:28:37 so much value in the models. If you told
00:28:39 me today these models will never get
00:28:41 better. They will hallucinate forever.
00:28:43 They will whatever sort of the
00:28:44 shortcomings are today, they will remain
00:28:46 forever. I have personally seen in my
00:28:48 work with companies there is still so
00:28:50 much value that you can capture.
00:28:51 >> Let's explore that.
00:28:52 >> Yeah. I just want to say maybe we'll
00:28:53 talk about that at the end. There's a
00:28:54 lot of research going on now on just
00:28:56 whole new paradigm. So you mentioned
00:28:57 world models. That's one example. Maybe
00:28:59 at the end we'll talk about those but
00:29:00 I'm saying like the research it's not
00:29:02 like it's not like people at OpenAI and
00:29:04 Anthropic are just sitting there being
00:29:05 like well we give up. They're just you
00:29:06 know scaling is done and you know that's
00:29:08 it. We're done. There's plenty of other
00:29:09 places people are going but maybe let's
00:29:10 get to value. Yeah. What do you think
00:29:13 these large language given the project
00:29:15 that ex as as it exists today? What do
00:29:19 you think these and we'll get to the
00:29:21 agentic stuff? We'll come to that. Let's
00:29:24 just start with the large language. What
00:29:25 are these things good for?
00:29:27 >> When I think of the value that I get out
00:29:30 of them, that people I've worked with
00:29:31 get out of them, that companies get out
00:29:32 of them, I think about them in three
00:29:34 buckets. Okay?
00:29:35 >> Right? One bucket is probably uh the
00:29:38 least obvious. That's why I say it first
00:29:40 is taking those classical machine
00:29:42 learning models which as you correctly
00:29:43 pointed out have been around for like
00:29:44 years and making them better using those
00:29:46 LLMs and we can talk about some examples
00:29:48 of that.
00:29:49 >> The second bucket is aai and we'll talk
00:29:51 about that too. And the third bucket is
00:29:53 and this sounds very it's the most
00:29:54 obvious one but just using them as chat
00:29:56 bots. Like I think they've been around
00:29:58 now for a few years and so it's easy to
00:30:00 just like lose track of how magical they
00:30:02 actually are.
00:30:03 >> So let's let's explore all three. Let's
00:30:05 start with the first one.
00:30:06 >> Let's start with the first one. So
00:30:07 probably easiest to explore with
00:30:09 examples but I've seen so many places
00:30:11 where this genai can take classical
00:30:13 machine learning and supercharge it. So
00:30:15 let's start with the first example.
00:30:16 Okay,
00:30:17 >> suppose you run a website where there is
00:30:20 um user content that is posted and this
00:30:24 could be anything. Could be a social
00:30:25 media network. It could be a e-commerce
00:30:27 platform where people write reviews,
00:30:28 anything like that, a Reddit, whatever
00:30:30 it might be. One problem that bedevils
00:30:33 websites like that, companies like that,
00:30:34 and that's been the case forever is
00:30:36 content moderation. Right? You've got to
00:30:37 if someone posts a comment to your
00:30:39 website, you've got to make sure it's
00:30:40 not illegal, it's not abusive, it's not
00:30:42 you're going to have a bunch of rules as
00:30:43 to what what comments can go on there.
00:30:45 And you know it may sound like a kind of
00:30:46 esoteric operational thing but this is
00:30:49 huge. I mean people pay enormous teams
00:30:51 of people and these are expensive teams
00:30:53 to really look through those websites.
00:30:55 And it turns out the quality of content
00:30:56 like if you look at Amazon
00:30:58 >> a lot of the value Amazon provides not
00:31:00 the only value but a lot of the value is
00:31:02 the reviews right I mean there's a lots
00:31:04 for example super super super valuable.
00:31:07 And so forever, for a long time, these
00:31:09 companies have been using machine
00:31:11 learning models to try and identify,
00:31:12 automatically flag what comments should
00:31:14 go to a human, right? How do we look at
00:31:16 something and figure out, ah, this might
00:31:17 be suspicious. Let's send it to a human
00:31:19 to review. So, for example, they might
00:31:21 look for specific words, right? They
00:31:23 might look for maybe the length of the
00:31:24 message, the time it's posted, the
00:31:26 location it's posted from, etc. The
00:31:28 problem with that, and it goes back to
00:31:29 the problem from your very first
00:31:31 question, what can these LLMs do that
00:31:32 that machine learning can't? they can't
00:31:35 actually understand the meaning of the
00:31:36 message, right? They can look for a word
00:31:37 in it, but that doesn't tell them what
00:31:39 the, you know, the full meaning of the
00:31:41 message is. So, for example, right, this
00:31:43 is a law. I don't know if it's true, but
00:31:45 people used to think that if you write a
00:31:47 message or post a video with the word
00:31:49 kill on Instagram, it'll de prioritize
00:31:51 it because it thinks it's bad. And so
00:31:52 now people have started using the word
00:31:54 unal alive instead of kill because hey,
00:31:56 then the algorithm, you know, can't
00:31:57 can't catch it. And so these machine
00:31:59 learning algorithms were always bedeled
00:32:01 by this problem that they what I've seen
00:32:04 people do with tremendous success is
00:32:06 they now say wait a second we're going
00:32:08 to stick with these machine learning
00:32:09 algorithms but we're going to inject
00:32:11 some Gen AI into it by having the Gen AI
00:32:15 look at these comments people are
00:32:16 posting and getting the Gen AI to
00:32:19 actually extract meaning from it because
00:32:20 we saw it can do that right it can
00:32:22 actually get meaning from those messages
00:32:23 and so examples of ways people have done
00:32:25 it the simplest way which is not
00:32:26 necessarily the is you literally go to a
00:32:29 chatbot, you give it the message, and
00:32:30 you say, "Hey, give me a score from 1 to
00:32:32 10. How likely is it that this is bad?"
00:32:34 And then it'll give you a number, and
00:32:36 then you put that into your machine
00:32:37 learning model. But an even smarter way
00:32:39 that I've seen is you can take that
00:32:40 message, and you remember going way back
00:32:42 when we talked about embeddings. So, you
00:32:44 can take the message, you can get
00:32:46 numbers for that message, right? Put it
00:32:47 on this XY axis. And then you can use
00:32:50 those numbers, those scores, even though
00:32:52 they don't really mean anything. They're
00:32:53 just like the internal guts of the of
00:32:55 the Genai. You can use those numbers as
00:32:57 an indicator. Maybe you look at
00:32:58 historical data and you say, "Wait a
00:33:00 second. When that second score is high,
00:33:02 that tends to be suspicious, so I'm
00:33:04 going to maybe moderate it." And I've
00:33:05 really seen people do that to great
00:33:06 effect. And the truth is, I talked about
00:33:08 content moderation. Any example, any use
00:33:11 case where you want to make predictions
00:33:13 and there is text involved. This can
00:33:16 really provide a lot of value and can be
00:33:17 very useful. And notice how in some ways
00:33:19 hallucinations don't really matter
00:33:21 because you're now I mean, they matter,
00:33:22 right? you'd rather the model didn't
00:33:23 hallucinate but you're not using the
00:33:25 model by itself you're putting it in the
00:33:27 context of a bigger machine learning
00:33:29 model that you can control that you can
00:33:30 evaluate that you can check and so
00:33:32 that's just one example I think where
00:33:33 you know huge value uh uh can be
00:33:35 generated
00:33:36 >> so that's that's one let's talk about uh
00:33:38 what is this agentic AI that I keep
00:33:40 >> funny we will get to agentic just so you
00:33:42 know we will I'll skip to aentic that
00:33:44 first category I had six examples ready
00:33:46 but we we'll go I mean I'm only saying
00:33:47 that to give you an idea that like there
00:33:49 is just so much there's a lot there's a
00:33:50 lot you can do
00:33:51 >> you know I don't on CNBC, I hear the
00:33:53 words agentic AI and I I guarantee you
00:33:56 that nine out of 10 people that are
00:33:58 talking about agentic AI have absolutely
00:34:00 no idea what they're talking and I'll be
00:34:01 the first one to admit that I don't know
00:34:03 what it is. So what what is it?
00:34:05 >> It's so buzzy. Um
00:34:06 >> it's it is so buzzy. I have good news.
00:34:08 It's like it's like you hear this word
00:34:09 like it's going to save the world. It's
00:34:11 going to wipe out the management
00:34:12 consulting business. I mean Agentic AI
00:34:15 has accomplished so much and it hasn't
00:34:16 accomplished anything yet. So what is
00:34:18 this thing? Who was it that quipped in
00:34:20 the early days of the PC revolution that
00:34:22 you know you see PCs everywhere except
00:34:23 for the productivities numbers or I
00:34:25 there was like anyway okay I have good
00:34:27 news for you. Agentic AI is really quite
00:34:28 simple. It's basically just a large
00:34:30 language model. A chatbot with a pair of
00:34:32 hands.
00:34:32 >> What does that mean?
00:34:33 >> So what what does that mean? It is a
00:34:35 chatbot that is given the ability to do
00:34:37 things in the real world like send a
00:34:39 text like send an email like process a
00:34:41 credit card transaction like process a
00:34:43 return. And so the way this works in
00:34:44 practice, the way companies do this and
00:34:45 let's take the most common example of an
00:34:47 agentic AI is maybe a customer service
00:34:49 chatbot. You as the company when you set
00:34:53 up this agentic AI, you create a bunch
00:34:56 of tools like a bunch of, you know, IT
00:34:58 functions, basically functions that say,
00:35:00 okay, this is, you know, will process a
00:35:02 return for a customer. This will ship an
00:35:04 order. This will send an email. This
00:35:06 will send a text. This will refund a
00:35:08 credit card transaction. And you make
00:35:09 all those tools available. And when you
00:35:12 set up your chatbot, you just tell the
00:35:14 chatbot literally like in the text of
00:35:16 the chatbot. There's smarter ways to do
00:35:17 it, but that's a simple version. You
00:35:20 tell it a customer is about to ask you a
00:35:22 question. And by the way, here are a
00:35:25 bunch of things you can do.
00:35:27 >> This sounds a lot, but it sounds a lot I
00:35:29 had an interview with uh the CFO of a
00:35:31 new company that just went public in the
00:35:33 summer, and it's a it's a travel agency
00:35:35 company,
00:35:36 >> but it's a completely new company. And
00:35:39 the way the CFO described it was that
00:35:43 prior to what they do, you know, if you
00:35:45 were gonna if you were going to go and
00:35:47 book a business trip, you know, from
00:35:49 start to finish, it would take you at
00:35:51 least 45 minutes to an hour to, you
00:35:54 know, book the trip, book the the rental
00:35:56 car, get the hotel. They have created a
00:35:59 an an AI system from scratch where you
00:36:01 can do this all in seven minutes.
00:36:03 >> That's aentic AI
00:36:04 >> precisely. And again, exactly as I
00:36:06 described it, what I assume happens in
00:36:08 that company is internally they've
00:36:10 created some nice pipes where you can
00:36:12 easily book a flight, book a hotel, look
00:36:14 for flights, look for hotels, and then
00:36:15 the chatbot gets the ability as you're
00:36:17 chatting with the chatbot, it can say,
00:36:19 "Ah, I would like to now call this hotel
00:36:22 booking tool. I would like to call this
00:36:23 send a text tool. I would like to call
00:36:25 this send an email tool." And so on and
00:36:26 so forth. And one thing I think this
00:36:28 really highlights, and this is like the
00:36:29 number one thing that usually, you know,
00:36:30 if company comes to me and says, "We
00:36:32 want to use AI, what can we do?" The
00:36:34 number one thing I usually tell them is
00:36:36 you've got to first create a fertile
00:36:38 environment, a an environment in your
00:36:40 company that is able to benefit from
00:36:42 that AI. And in the example, for
00:36:44 example, you need to have the IT systems
00:36:47 that allow a computer to book a flight
00:36:50 or to process a return or to whatever
00:36:51 doesn't happen magically,
00:36:52 >> right? If you're, let's say, a mandopme
00:36:54 and you still take orders by hand and
00:36:55 you're writing down, you don't need
00:36:57 GPT75. You need like just your IT
00:37:00 systems to be in a way that can actually
00:37:01 sort of facilitate those things. And
00:37:02 that's kind of why I say I think you
00:37:04 know sometimes you know we talk about
00:37:06 the AI bubble I sometimes people
00:37:08 sometimes conflate the previous question
00:37:10 we spoke about like will AI scale will
00:37:12 it become super intelligent with do we
00:37:14 have an AI bubble so they figure you
00:37:16 know if AI scales to be like superhuman
00:37:18 then we don't have an AI bubble but if
00:37:20 AI stays the way it is today then we
00:37:21 have an AI bubble and I don't think it's
00:37:23 that simple like I would say even if
00:37:25 models stay exactly the way they are
00:37:26 today if companies get their house
00:37:29 together in terms of the IT and in terms
00:37:31 of the systems in terms of the data But
00:37:32 that's a major issue because most of the
00:37:35 companies in the world I don't think
00:37:37 have their data set up in such a way
00:37:39 where they can really say they have to
00:37:41 actually go through a process where they
00:37:43 have to put their data all in one place
00:37:45 and clean it up etc before they can do
00:37:47 any of this.
00:37:47 >> And by the way Steve I got to say just
00:37:48 as a human my favorite thing about Chen
00:37:50 AI when I work with companies my
00:37:52 favorite thing is it almost now
00:37:54 motivates companies to do this. Like 5
00:37:56 years ago I would go to a company and
00:37:57 say you know you got to put your data
00:37:58 into one place you got to organize. as
00:38:00 you go and they'll be like ah boring you
00:38:02 know we want now it's like all right
00:38:04 that's what I got to do to get geni
00:38:05 working let's go but but you know but uh
00:38:08 absolutely you got to do that uh and so
00:38:09 that really is what genti is by the way
00:38:11 I mean just one more example because I
00:38:13 think it's you know might be relevant to
00:38:14 your listeners uh people are now working
00:38:16 these are in their infancy uh uh
00:38:18 anthropic is finally releasing this to
00:38:20 the public there are excel agents now
00:38:23 where the tools I mentioned that the
00:38:25 chatbot has are tools like create a
00:38:27 pivot table right into this Excel
00:38:30 create change the color of a cell and so
00:38:32 you're talking with a chatbot and you
00:38:33 tell it for example can you build me a
00:38:35 DCF for Nvidia right and it will be able
00:38:38 to use that tool and actually change
00:38:40 your Excel spreadsheet as you're talking
00:38:41 to it right so if that actually works
00:38:44 you can imagine that would sort of be uh
00:38:45 pretty amazing I would say that's still
00:38:47 in their infancy but you know things are
00:38:48 moving fast so so who knows so that's
00:38:49 the agenting sort of bucket
00:38:51 >> and what else do you think this can do
00:38:53 >> the large language models yeah so you
00:38:55 know I think it's worth uh mentioning uh
00:38:57 just chat bots themselves right I mean
00:38:59 is literally chatgptt.com Claude Gemini
00:39:02 whatever it might be uh they're great
00:39:04 they can write emails they can sort of
00:39:05 you know do all these things that uh uh
00:39:07 again now we kind of take for granted
00:39:09 I'm actually curious do you use them at
00:39:10 all in your workflow dayto-day
00:39:12 >> I I use you know uh Gemini all all the
00:39:15 time for research
00:39:16 >> it's useful for research sort of you
00:39:17 know I mean to write code by the way I
00:39:19 mean the extent to which these models
00:39:20 have gotten better at writing code in
00:39:22 the last 6 months is just I mean
00:39:23 sometimes gives me existential dread I
00:39:25 love writing code and I just like wow
00:39:27 they're good now again still not I got a
00:39:29 lot of push back on that from a whole
00:39:31 bunch of different coders who watch my
00:39:33 show. You know, some of them were of the
00:39:35 view that, you know, there were parts of
00:39:37 coding that that helped, but parts of
00:39:39 coding that it really didn't help. It
00:39:40 was kind of all over the place. There
00:39:42 was no there was no consensus.
00:39:43 >> I'm going to tell you two things about
00:39:44 that. First thing is
00:39:47 if you'd asked me six months ago,
00:39:48 >> yeah,
00:39:49 >> I would have basically said forget about
00:39:50 it. They're useful search engine for
00:39:52 code, right? If you want to create one
00:39:54 or two lines of code, but you know,
00:39:55 that's pretty much it. they've really
00:39:58 improved. I mean, I would encourage any
00:40:00 listeners who haven't used clawed code
00:40:02 recently or just haven't used cloud just
00:40:04 by itself to write code, especially
00:40:06 front-end design. So, creating a web
00:40:08 page, a nicel looking website. Uh truly,
00:40:10 if you're someone who's sitting here
00:40:11 thinking, nah, they'll never sort of do
00:40:13 anything. Try it right now.
00:40:14 >> Okay. So, it's gotten a lot better.
00:40:16 >> Gotten a lot better. Having said that, I
00:40:17 agree with them. I mean I still think
00:40:18 there is a certain level of creativity
00:40:21 required in sort of architecting a
00:40:24 software solution in making sure it
00:40:26 doesn't go off the rails and making sure
00:40:27 it's secure and so on that is uh you
00:40:29 know that still needs a human involved.
00:40:32 That said sometimes I wonder and I got
00:40:33 to tell you Steve like I I love coding.
00:40:35 I think it's a fun exercise. It's
00:40:36 creative and sometimes I wonder if I you
00:40:38 know if I'm sounding like an artist who
00:40:41 says like you know I I love creating art
00:40:43 but these models you know well they're
00:40:44 nowhere near as good as I am. And so I
00:40:45 don't know that there's a there's an
00:40:46 element of similarity there. So anyway,
00:40:48 I'm not sort of saying it's definitely
00:40:50 amazing at coding. I'm just saying there
00:40:51 is certain parts of coding that it's
00:40:53 certainly really uh really really good
00:40:55 at. Uh last thing I'll say just about
00:40:57 chatbots is I think they are um they are
00:41:01 really uh something people sometimes
00:41:02 don't know is at least from a enterprise
00:41:04 setting they can be customized quite
00:41:06 well. So you can do things like give
00:41:08 them trolls of documents, right? Like
00:41:10 thousands tens of thousands of documents
00:41:12 and then what they do back to the
00:41:14 embeddings we spoke about there's a
00:41:15 reason I mentioned them. They're
00:41:16 everywhere. You can take those
00:41:17 documents, you can embed the documents.
00:41:19 You give the documents like a vibe
00:41:21 basically. You say, "Ah, this document
00:41:22 has this kind of vibe. This one has this
00:41:23 kind of vibe." And then when you're
00:41:25 chatting with a chatbot, it can search
00:41:27 through those documents because it can
00:41:28 say, let's say you ask uh uh you ask the
00:41:31 chatbot, "Show me my contract that has
00:41:33 the highest, I don't know, the risk or
00:41:36 whatever it might be that is the most."
00:41:37 It can say, "Okay, risky contract that
00:41:40 has a vibe. I can embed that and I can
00:41:42 put that somewhere. Let me now look at
00:41:44 the document that has the closest vibe
00:41:45 and it finds it." And it's just amazing
00:41:47 how well it does that.
00:41:48 >> Let me ask you about uh sort of the from
00:41:51 a business perspective two um what would
00:41:55 be the right word
00:41:58 hot topics.
00:42:00 So
00:42:02 you know last year if you were to look
00:42:03 at uh you know what did well in tech and
00:42:07 what did not do well in tech which is
00:42:08 always I find it very interesting
00:42:10 because people just say tech tech did
00:42:11 great you know buy tech you know blah
00:42:13 blah blah. So la last year you know
00:42:16 leave leave aside just the mag seven as
00:42:18 as a category but you know anybody
00:42:21 involved with selling chips did great
00:42:24 whether it's GPUs CPUs memory chips they
00:42:28 did great so hardware companies
00:42:30 generally did well um hyperscalers who
00:42:32 are buying these chips and creating AI
00:42:34 data centers did well but the two groups
00:42:37 that did terribly would be software
00:42:40 companies and some iconic software
00:42:42 companies like Salesforce
00:42:45 service now and the argument about why
00:42:48 they did poorly was that the cost of
00:42:50 creating software
00:42:52 quote unquote is collapsing and so
00:42:55 therefore the moes that these companies
00:42:56 have around them are not as strong. That
00:42:59 was one group and the other group were
00:43:01 the management consultants because you
00:43:03 know the argument is why do I need a
00:43:05 management consultant when for you know
00:43:07 90% of the stuff that I used to ask a
00:43:09 management consultant about I could ask
00:43:10 chat GPT and he gives it to me for free.
00:43:12 So what do you just think about those
00:43:14 two sort of are it's you know sometimes
00:43:17 it's a narrative and you know in the in
00:43:20 the business world when a narrative
00:43:21 takes hold it's very hard to for that
00:43:24 narrative to die until it like somebody
00:43:26 beats it to death.
00:43:28 >> So I just curious what you think of
00:43:29 those narratives.
00:43:30 >> Let me give you some thoughts. I should
00:43:31 just say up front I am like in awe of
00:43:33 people like you who can actually
00:43:36 get an idea at least of where the market
00:43:37 is going. Like I always I can have an
00:43:40 idea of I have an idea of these topics.
00:43:42 How those are going to then move the
00:43:43 market. God knows it seems to be like a
00:43:45 beast that I sort of you know don't
00:43:46 fully understand.
00:43:47 >> That's okay. That's not why you're here.
00:43:49 >> No totally totally. Um so let's talk
00:43:50 about software companies first and we'll
00:43:52 get to the you know the the cost of
00:43:54 developing software or otherwise. I just
00:43:56 want to first express some sympathy in
00:43:58 the sense that like I've certainly felt
00:43:59 this way even with teaching it is like
00:44:03 we are building a car like sorry driving
00:44:05 a car learning how to drive a car while
00:44:07 it's being built like literally every 5
00:44:09 seconds you sneeze and there's a new
00:44:11 kind of AI that totally changes the way
00:44:13 you uh uh uh you know your offering the
00:44:16 way you should design your software the
00:44:18 way you should offer it enterprises
00:44:19 especially company of the size of the
00:44:21 size of Salesforce they're just not
00:44:23 designed to operate at that speed I mean
00:44:25 that's Wild, wild, wild, wild.
00:44:26 >> So things are happening very rapidly.
00:44:27 >> Very rapidly. And I would just say I
00:44:29 don't this is not a prediction, but I've
00:44:32 got a thing just from like a just purely
00:44:35 sort of logical perspective. It's going
00:44:37 to have to slow down at some point. At
00:44:38 some point we're going to reach a place
00:44:39 where a lot of the low-lying fruits have
00:44:41 been harvested and we're now and so I I
00:44:43 would just sort of put that here first
00:44:44 of all that you know we are very much
00:44:46 it's like it's almost like saying you
00:44:47 know eight months into co oh look this
00:44:50 company is sort of doing well or badly
00:44:51 or whatever. I mean sure but things were
00:44:53 just moving like the entire structure of
00:44:55 the world was was changing. So that's
00:44:57 the first thing I'll say you know the
00:44:58 fact that the cost of software is
00:45:00 dropping and people might develop their
00:45:01 own software maybe I mean I've told you
00:45:03 I've you know put up front the fact that
00:45:04 I think uh uh uh you know coding using
00:45:06 LLM is uh is uh they're good whether
00:45:10 they're perfect definitely not and so
00:45:11 on. I will say though I think people are
00:45:13 underestimating the fact that like
00:45:14 Salesforce is not just providing code
00:45:17 software. I mean they are but they're
00:45:19 also providing an entire structure a way
00:45:21 of thinking about your business a way of
00:45:23 you know like can you corral a whole
00:45:25 bunch of people together in your
00:45:26 business to actually agree to use this
00:45:28 piece of software. And so I'm not saying
00:45:30 that's going to be replaced but I'm
00:45:31 saying there's probably a place they
00:45:33 could evolve that involves like that
00:45:36 puts more emphasis on those on all the
00:45:38 things around software rather than just
00:45:40 the software itself. Right? Meaning
00:45:42 imagine if every single employee of
00:45:43 yours could build their own Salesforce,
00:45:46 their own sort of I don't know CRM let's
00:45:47 say to sort of manage customers. It
00:45:49 would be chaos. I mean everyone has a
00:45:51 CRM. Which one do you use? Which one is
00:45:52 right? Which one is wrong? How do you
00:45:53 verify it? Whom do you trust? So you
00:45:54 know
00:45:55 >> I was actually thinking about also you
00:45:57 know there are certain companies that
00:45:58 control databases.
00:46:00 >> Yeah.
00:46:01 >> And like let's say I'm the guy who has
00:46:03 the best database about commercial real
00:46:06 estate. Sure.
00:46:06 >> And I've I've had this business forever.
00:46:09 I would think somebody could come in
00:46:11 today
00:46:13 and do it a lot cheaper than I than I
00:46:16 have done it. And you know, no one has
00:46:18 ever been able to attack me because I
00:46:20 quote unquote control this database. But
00:46:22 I I think that that people who have
00:46:24 certain types of databases are
00:46:27 vulnerable to this world.
00:46:29 >> I think that's true. I mean, I'll give
00:46:30 you one example of some example of a
00:46:31 place that's really vulnerable. If your
00:46:34 entire database is predicated on the
00:46:35 fact that you just like looked at a
00:46:38 whole bunch of handwritten documents or
00:46:40 type documents that weren't digitized
00:46:42 and you you know painstakingly sort of
00:46:45 you know extracted the data from them
00:46:46 and that gave you that database you are
00:46:48 really susceptible to disruption because
00:46:50 now these large language models you give
00:46:52 them a PDF and using all the techniques
00:46:53 we spoke about they just extract the
00:46:55 data in a second. So I think you know
00:46:56 that's one end of the spectrum. the
00:46:58 other end of the spectrum maybe the
00:46:59 extreme version of such a company is
00:47:01 Bloomberg right I mean there all these
00:47:02 data feeds they have etc I would imagine
00:47:04 and I don't know sort of a huge amount
00:47:06 about it I would imagine there would be
00:47:07 much harder
00:47:08 >> that's much harder because they have so
00:47:09 many different databases
00:47:11 >> yeah and you know I'll say there is a
00:47:12 world in which you know we always forget
00:47:14 the fact and this is you know the the
00:47:16 the paradox everyone likes to mention
00:47:18 these days but the fact that and I
00:47:19 forget the name of the paradox uh uh but
00:47:21 if you now have a if it's now much
00:47:23 easier to create these databases yes
00:47:25 you're going to disrupt people who've
00:47:27 had them in the past, but you're also
00:47:28 going to have many more. There's going
00:47:29 to be many sort of more places where
00:47:31 you're suddenly able to create these
00:47:32 databases you didn't have before. Uh uh
00:47:34 right. Just I mean to give you another
00:47:35 example, you know, I said when we first
00:47:37 discussed using Genai to strengthen
00:47:38 machine learning, I said I had plenty of
00:47:40 other examples. I'll slip one in right
00:47:41 now because it applies just you know the
00:47:44 fact that you could now take a bunch of
00:47:45 text and even take images and create
00:47:47 these embeddings, these essences, these
00:47:49 vibes that kind of allows you to build
00:47:51 databases you would never have had
00:47:53 before. You could look at millions of
00:47:54 images, right? Look at millions of
00:47:56 pieces of text. You can embed them. You
00:47:58 can put them on this XY plane that kind
00:47:59 of defines their essence and you can
00:48:01 start saying, "Okay, if someone searches
00:48:03 for a particular term, I can now surface
00:48:05 the right images and the right pieces of
00:48:07 text that just relate to that particular
00:48:09 term." So, you can imagine whole new
00:48:10 kinds of databases, whole new kinds of
00:48:12 uh of uh of data that are created by
00:48:14 this.
00:48:15 >> So, let's talk about management
00:48:16 consulting because because that's sort
00:48:17 of a pet peeve of mine over the years.
00:48:19 And you know the argument that people
00:48:21 have is you know you used to hire a
00:48:23 management consultant because you you
00:48:25 they have this this information and
00:48:26 they're going to come in and now I don't
00:48:28 need a management consultant because
00:48:29 I'll just ask chat GPT and it'll give it
00:48:30 to me in two seconds.
00:48:31 >> Let me just tell you something. I you
00:48:32 know Palanteer is not a management
00:48:34 consultant by any way shape or form but
00:48:35 you know there is some services element
00:48:37 to the to the business and I remember
00:48:39 sometimes musing with um
00:48:43 with my colleagues there maybe I
00:48:44 shouldn't say this but I remember musing
00:48:46 with my colleagues there that like
00:48:48 sometimes a lot of the value we provided
00:48:50 was just getting all the people in a
00:48:52 room together like like literally we
00:48:53 would go to a company because they
00:48:54 wanted to use data analytics AI they
00:48:56 wanted to use our platform and in that
00:48:57 room there was the CEO and the CTO and
00:49:00 someone on the ground who actually
00:49:01 worked with the data and someone who
00:49:02 knew what the day and like literally all
00:49:04 those people had never been in a room
00:49:06 together before, right? So, you know, so
00:49:08 again I I'm I'm going to an extreme
00:49:10 here. I'm simplifying, but I think there
00:49:11 is that element of management
00:49:13 consulting, that external view that
00:49:15 getting people together, which yeah,
00:49:16 maybe LLMs could put together, but I
00:49:18 think and again also I don't know much
00:49:20 necessarily about the world of
00:49:22 management consulting. I haven't been at
00:49:23 Mackenzie, Bane, or BTG or whatever. I
00:49:25 was you know Palante which is a very
00:49:26 different kind of kind of beast but I
00:49:28 could definitely imagine you know
00:49:29 thinking of the services side of
00:49:31 Palante's business let's say right which
00:49:32 is not management consulting but
00:49:34 certainly that I I you know I really see
00:49:36 a lot of value in like getting all the
00:49:38 people in the room together
00:49:39 understanding how you want to take again
00:49:41 your very messy business where
00:49:42 everything is done by pen and paper and
00:49:44 bringing all the data into one place and
00:49:45 figuring out what's happening so I could
00:49:47 easily see the the the big management
00:49:49 consulting shops kind of shifting and
00:49:51 they already are kind of shifting in
00:49:52 that direction. Uh and then also maybe
00:49:54 there's still value to sort of classical
00:49:56 management consulting. I don't know
00:49:57 enough about it to you know.
00:49:58 >> So le let's go back to something that we
00:50:00 talked about where so many companies
00:50:02 don't even have their data in a position
00:50:04 to actually
00:50:06 >> I mean in in your travels
00:50:10 >> if we're talking about let's say the S&P
00:50:12 500 or the S&P 1000 you know whatever. I
00:50:16 mean, if nobody's data is in a is in a
00:50:19 position to do any of this stuff, then
00:50:23 AI is academic at this point in that in
00:50:26 that sense because so many of the
00:50:28 companies don't. So, where do you think
00:50:29 corporate America actually is to be able
00:50:32 to to do any of this stuff these days?
00:50:34 >> Yeah, it's a great question, you know,
00:50:36 and the last research I've seen that
00:50:38 actually tries to figure that out
00:50:39 systematically was a long time ago. And
00:50:41 there it was something like, you know,
00:50:43 5% some ridiculously small number, but
00:50:44 it was a long time ago. I don't think
00:50:46 that's true anymore today because you're
00:50:48 right if if the data is not in the right
00:50:49 place there's just nothing you can
00:50:50 really do with any of this stuff. I will
00:50:52 say that there's a there's a factor
00:50:53 which is that the AI itself can be very
00:50:55 helpful in cleaning that data, right?
00:50:57 And so there's a company I worked with I
00:51:00 read a case with AI consultant CEO
00:51:01 called Blend 360. They had a client that
00:51:04 had this issue in their data where they
00:51:06 were the client was formed through a
00:51:07 bunch of acquisitions and they were a
00:51:09 B2B sort of shop and they were formed
00:51:10 through a bunch of acquisitions and
00:51:12 everyone they had multiple databases
00:51:15 listing their customers and every
00:51:17 database used a different name. So, one
00:51:19 database would say the client is
00:51:21 Coca-Cola. Let's say one database would
00:51:22 say it's Coca-Cola Company. The other
00:51:24 one would say it's Coke. The other one
00:51:26 would say it's CCNA or whatever. And
00:51:28 what they did, which I thought was just
00:51:29 genius, is they used a large language
00:51:32 model to clean that up because if you
00:51:34 ask a large language model, is Coca-Cola
00:51:35 the same as a Coca-Cola company? It is
00:51:37 going to be damn good at doing that. It
00:51:38 knows the world. It knows everything. So
00:51:40 that's just one example where it's not
00:51:41 geni quad geni it's not like for the
00:51:43 geni itself but it really it transformed
00:51:46 things for them because now they had
00:51:47 this unified data set they could
00:51:48 actually use use machine learning. So
00:51:50 I'll say I know I'm not directly
00:51:51 answering your question but but but I
00:51:53 think there is hope that uh um the genai
00:51:56 not only sort of is useful with the data
00:51:58 but also that it can actually help uh uh
00:52:00 uh sort of formalize and clean and sort
00:52:03 of put that data in a better place in a
00:52:05 way that that makes it more valuable.
00:52:07 But I I do think we're far I mean I
00:52:08 think you know outside from the very big
00:52:10 companies uh uh that maybe have the
00:52:12 resources or maybe need to for
00:52:14 compliance reasons just have that data
00:52:15 in a good place I think there's you know
00:52:17 a lot uh of midsize companies certainly
00:52:20 the not even close
00:52:21 >> certainly the ones I speak to that
00:52:22 there's just a lot of work to be done to
00:52:24 get things in in in good places.
00:52:26 >> So what else should we talk about before
00:52:27 we we finish up here?
00:52:28 >> What else should we talk about? maybe it
00:52:30 makes sense to talk a little bit about
00:52:33 um what people are excited about when it
00:52:35 comes to kind of next generations of of
00:52:37 models, things that are in research. So
00:52:39 there's a bunch of places people are
00:52:41 going. So one thing that I think your
00:52:42 listeners may find interesting is um so
00:52:45 you know how I I kind of explained how
00:52:48 the way these models are trained is it
00:52:50 just tries to predict the next word and
00:52:51 the next word and the next word and the
00:52:53 next word and you know a model is
00:52:54 considered good at least in training
00:52:56 when you're tweaking the weights. It's
00:52:58 considered good if it does a good job
00:52:59 predicting the next word.
00:53:00 >> Correct?
00:53:01 >> And so what people have started doing uh
00:53:03 and they did this in the early days but
00:53:04 now there are even sort of smarter ways
00:53:06 of doing this is they're trying to say
00:53:07 instead of just tweaking the parameters
00:53:09 of the model using that the next word
00:53:11 prediction can we actually look at the
00:53:14 full answer maybe get the large language
00:53:16 model to generate many answers because
00:53:18 it can because of the randomness that I
00:53:20 told you about. So you can get many
00:53:21 answers and then you judge the answers
00:53:24 not by each token one by one but by
00:53:26 where it got to at the end. Did it
00:53:28 finally at the end get me sort of the
00:53:29 right result.
00:53:30 >> And the traditional way of doing that
00:53:32 was something called reinforcement
00:53:33 learning with human feedback RLHF. Uh
00:53:36 that's been around for a while but now
00:53:38 people are doing and sorry for the
00:53:39 jargon here but they're doing something
00:53:40 called reinforcement learning with
00:53:41 verifiable rewards RLVR. That's sort of
00:53:44 a big new thing they're doing which is
00:53:46 can you try and use things that are
00:53:48 automatically verifiable like sums like
00:53:50 math for example and can you use that to
00:53:52 try and sort of train the models in that
00:53:54 way and it's had you know quite a bit of
00:53:56 quite a bit of success by the way do you
00:53:57 remember deepseek that that novel that
00:53:58 came out right that was
00:54:00 >> people were amazed at how good it was
00:54:01 and how it was trained sort of you know
00:54:03 so so cheaply to the extent it was and
00:54:04 there sort of
00:54:06 >> statement to begin with that was a
00:54:07 controversial statement to begin with
00:54:08 but to the extent it was a lot of it was
00:54:10 they improved that process the RHF
00:54:12 process was you know they did a better
00:54:13 job there so One direction to think
00:54:14 about that I think has a lot of promise.
00:54:16 World models is something Gary sort of
00:54:18 mentioned last time. I don't know a huge
00:54:20 amount about them. They're still very
00:54:21 very experimental. But the idea behind
00:54:23 these world models is basically can we
00:54:26 give the large language model kind of
00:54:27 its own version of the matrix like you
00:54:29 know the movie like its own version of
00:54:30 like a mini world inside of it. And so
00:54:33 for example when we ask pick a ball from
00:54:35 the bag you remember the example before
00:54:37 five balls ABCDE E pick one at random.
00:54:39 Instead of using the embeddings and
00:54:41 figuring out where the embedding is and
00:54:42 figuring out the next word, the model
00:54:45 would be able to use this little mini
00:54:46 matrix to actually like create a bag
00:54:49 with five balls and pick the right ball
00:54:51 and then see where the letter is and
00:54:52 then give you sort of a better answer.
00:54:54 And you can imagine a world model that
00:54:56 like, you know, knows all the laws of
00:54:57 physics and knows the way the planet
00:54:59 works and so on. So that's kind of an
00:55:00 exciting uh uh uh direction. I don't
00:55:02 know enough about it to tell you whether
00:55:03 it's something I'm, you know, I think is
00:55:05 good, I think it's bad, whatever.
00:55:06 there's clearly very very smart people
00:55:08 that are sort of going down that
00:55:09 direction. But that's another
00:55:10 interesting thing to uh to think about.
00:55:12 Um maybe last thing that's worth talking
00:55:13 about
00:55:14 >> for everything we've spoken about
00:55:15 machine learning models, AI models etc.
00:55:18 I think it is ultimately important to
00:55:20 remember that these models are just at
00:55:23 least right now statistical parrots that
00:55:25 are just paring existing data and that
00:55:27 can lead to all the kinds of issues
00:55:28 we've spoken about things like
00:55:30 statistical par. So exactly sort of what
00:55:32 we were describing they will take a a
00:55:35 question you put in they will embed them
00:55:37 right put them in a space and then find
00:55:39 sort of words around it but what that
00:55:41 determination is based on is just all
00:55:43 the historical data you put into the
00:55:45 models to train them right so that's
00:55:47 what I mean by statistical par this is
00:55:49 all statistics that's being used to
00:55:50 figure out you know what the embeddings
00:55:51 are what the closest words are they're
00:55:53 just trying to replicate
00:55:54 >> so that's why it has problems with
00:55:55 novelty because novelty is not in the
00:55:58 database
00:55:58 >> because novelty is not in the database
00:56:00 but then it can have bigger problems
00:56:01 which is just that like you know the
00:56:03 training data that is put into the model
00:56:05 by definition is going to have some
00:56:06 biases it's going to have some
00:56:07 preconceptions of the world it's going
00:56:09 to have some and you know sometimes
00:56:10 those work for you sometimes they don't
00:56:12 I mean just to give you an example I
00:56:13 recommend any of your listeners should
00:56:14 go on uh on uh uh chipt and ask it or
00:56:18 any other model generate a picture of a
00:56:20 typical American boy for me and it'll
00:56:22 come up with a picture might be what you
00:56:24 had in mind what not what you had in
00:56:26 mind but it has an assumption about what
00:56:28 that is what that means what American
00:56:29 means and You know, again, in that case,
00:56:33 it's maybe innocuous, but in some cases,
00:56:34 it's not innocuous.
00:56:35 >> So, you're saying the models could have
00:56:36 like a political bias, a moral bias.
00:56:39 >> The model definitely has a political
00:56:40 bias. The model definitely has a moral
00:56:42 bias.
00:56:42 >> How does it how does it get a political
00:56:44 bias? How does it get a moral bias?
00:56:46 >> So, two ways. The first way is through
00:56:47 that training I spoke about, right? It
00:56:49 looks at all the text on the internet
00:56:50 and to the extent that all the text on
00:56:52 the internet has a political bias, it's
00:56:54 going to sort of absorb that. But then
00:56:56 there's that second stage that I just
00:56:57 briefly mentioned, this RLHF,
00:56:59 reinforcement learning from human
00:57:01 feedback. That is a process where AI
00:57:03 companies will literally look at entire
00:57:06 conversations and will tell the model
00:57:08 that was a good conversation, that was a
00:57:10 bad conversation. And so, for example,
00:57:12 >> uh uh uh let's say you have a large
00:57:14 language model that starts being like
00:57:16 super abusive and threatening and
00:57:17 anti-Semitic and racist and whatever.
00:57:19 The AI company will say, "Whoa, that's a
00:57:21 bad conversation. Let's try and shift
00:57:23 the parameters to get less of that." And
00:57:25 as part of that process, it can just
00:57:28 gather all these sort of you know biases
00:57:30 about the world. Some of them are
00:57:31 intentional, but some of them can be
00:57:32 unintentional, right? It's not to say
00:57:33 that uh uh uh you know that they're
00:57:35 intentional. So that's certainly sort of
00:57:36 you know a uh and this gets especially
00:57:39 bad. You know when we said agentic AI
00:57:40 when we're giving the model a pair of
00:57:42 hands
00:57:42 >> if we now start allowing the model to do
00:57:45 things in the real world right you were
00:57:46 talking about Terminator. You could
00:57:48 imagine a crazy situation where you have
00:57:50 a model that isn't so good that
00:57:51 hallucinates that can't come up with the
00:57:53 right thing and you kind of allow it
00:57:54 suddenly to do I don't know to sue
00:57:57 someone let's say right as a law firm I
00:57:58 mean that could be that could be quite
00:58:00 >> send an email that's terrible
00:58:02 >> send an email that's terrible you can
00:58:03 imagine even worse you give it access to
00:58:05 weapons or whatever things like that and
00:58:06 so I always like to say like I'm not as
00:58:08 worried about human intellig about
00:58:10 artificial intelligence as I am about
00:58:11 human stupidity right that they're
00:58:12 giving those models a tool and so I
00:58:15 think a lot of that infrastructure
00:58:16 around getting those models to work. The
00:58:18 thing I said that is currently the
00:58:19 bottleneck, the gating factor being
00:58:21 ready for this is also to think about,
00:58:23 okay, if I give my tool the ability to,
00:58:26 let's say, process a credit card
00:58:27 transaction, what kind of fences do I
00:58:30 put around that? What kind of, you know,
00:58:32 safeguards? Maybe I only allow it to go
00:58:34 up to a certain amount. Maybe, you know,
00:58:35 that that that kind of stuff.
00:58:37 >> So, I'm going to give you the last word.
00:58:38 So, we had, as I said, Gary Marcus on.
00:58:42 just sum up your view of where we are in
00:58:43 this world and and and how hopeful you
00:58:45 are about what what this world's going
00:58:47 to be like.
00:58:48 >> Good question. How hopeful am I? Okay,
00:58:50 I'll tell you one thing. I don't know
00:58:51 how hopeful or unhopful this makes me,
00:58:52 but I think the one takeaway I want
00:58:54 people to maybe take from my view here
00:58:57 uh um is that even if everything uh Gary
00:59:01 said was right and his view is right,
00:59:03 which I actually don't, there's nothing
00:59:04 he said that I thought, oh, I disagree
00:59:05 with this. I want people to realize that
00:59:08 there's still a lot of value to be
00:59:10 gotten out today. And that value could
00:59:11 be for real good. I mean, there's a lot
00:59:12 of stuff, you know, you were talking,
00:59:13 you spoke about the US healthcare system
00:59:15 and how difficult it is and and and
00:59:18 complicated it is to sometimes file
00:59:19 claims and appeal things and whatever.
00:59:21 That is something AI could really do a
00:59:23 lot of good for, right, if it's done
00:59:25 right, if it's structured correctly and
00:59:26 so on and so forth. So, I think there's
00:59:28 a lot of good and a lot of value that
00:59:29 can be done, a lot of really a lot of
00:59:31 sort of uh good stuff that can be done.
00:59:32 And so, I guess I would encourage people
00:59:34 to maybe worry a little well that's not
00:59:36 true. they should also worry about the
00:59:37 future and if we get Terminator and
00:59:38 whatever that that's worthwhile but also
00:59:40 spend a bit of time asking okay I've got
00:59:42 this wonderful toy right now today sort
00:59:45 of you know what can I do with it what
00:59:46 can it do for me what what can I do with
00:59:48 it and hopefully this has been a bit of
00:59:49 a of inspiration for what uh and as I
00:59:52 said I'll put we'll put in the show
00:59:53 notes this little sort of tools I put
00:59:55 together so people can actually play
00:59:56 around with some of the concept sort of
00:59:57 we we discussed and hopefully they
00:59:59 really get to see how you know these are
01:00:00 not uh these are not magical
01:00:02 technologies these are very much just
01:00:04 you know calculations statistics ics,
01:00:06 but that put together just result in
01:00:07 this truly wondrous uh sort of set of
01:00:09 models.
01:00:10 >> That was great. Thank you very much.
01:00:12 >> So much fun. Thanks so much, Steve.
01:00:13 >> Glad to have you.
01:00:15 >> That was some interview. And my
01:00:18 takeaways are that there's quite a bit
01:00:21 of overlap in agreement between Gary and
01:00:24 Professor Getta, but also quite a bit of
01:00:27 disagreement. So if if Gary was here, he
01:00:29 would say I think that the LLM models
01:00:33 are losing their efficaciousness and
01:00:35 they will never ever ever produce
01:00:38 returns that justify the hundreds of
01:00:40 billions of dollars that the industry is
01:00:42 spending. I think that's what Gary would
01:00:44 say. Professor Guetta I think pointed
01:00:47 out he agrees that LLMs are not going to
01:00:51 achieve artificial general intelligence
01:00:53 but at the end he doesn't really think
01:00:56 that matters because the LLM models and
01:00:59 the agentic AI chat bots etc are good
01:01:02 enough to produce really efficacious
01:01:06 products and you know recently there
01:01:09 have been a whole bunch bunch of
01:01:10 announcements of agentic AI chat bots
01:01:13 that have really shaken up the industry.
01:01:16 You've seen insurance brokers get
01:01:18 impacted, wealth managers get impacted.
01:01:21 Everybody's scared that this is actually
01:01:24 going to work and the amount of money
01:01:26 that the industry is spending to achieve
01:01:28 all this is not stopping. You know, I
01:01:31 think I would side a little bit more
01:01:32 with Professor Guetta here that you're
01:01:34 going to see a lot more products. What
01:01:37 we don't know and which I think is
01:01:39 really the question is is all this money
01:01:41 going to going to achieve returns that
01:01:43 justify the investments and frankly
01:01:46 we're not going to know that. We're not
01:01:48 going to know that for a while. I don't
01:01:49 think we're going to know that this
01:01:50 year. I think all we're going to see are
01:01:52 a lot of announcements that are sound
01:01:53 very exciting but we may not know till
01:01:56 2027 2028 whether all the this
01:01:59 investment is going to produce returns
01:02:02 that justify it. So until then, I think
01:02:05 the story will stay the same. The
01:02:07 hyperscalers will continue to spend
01:02:08 money and people will be questioning
01:02:11 whether this is really all worth it.
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