This strategic brief from Kagi, published in January 2026, analyzes the critical state of the search market post-monopoly adjudication. Following the August 2024 U.S. court ruling confirming Google's monopoly in general search services (holding over 90% global market share), the document argues that control over the singular, comprehensive web index functions as an irreplaceable piece of digital infrastructure, throttling competition in both search and derivative AI technologies (LLM grounding). Kagi details its unsuccessful attempts to secure direct, contractual index licensing on FRAND (Fair, Reasonable, And Non-Discriminatory) terms from major vendors like Google and Bing, forcing reliance on third-party SERP providers. The core focus is an assessment of the Department of Justice (DOJ) remedies announced in September and December 2025, which mandate index syndication, index data access at marginal cost, and prohibit the bundling of search access with advertising. Kagi strongly supports the full implementation of these remedies as the necessary mechanism to transform the closed market into a competitive, layered ecosystem.
Summary: Regulatory and Market Implications for Search Infrastructure
Google’s Monopoly Confirmation (August 5, 2024): A U.S. court formally ruled that Google is a monopolist in general search services, controlling approximately 90% of the worldwide search market share as of October 2025.
Index as Critical Infrastructure: The source argues that the search index is irreplaceable infrastructure (likened to a national railroad) whose monopolistic control restricts innovation in the AI sector, as large language models (LLMs) rely on search for real-world grounding.
Licensing Failures: Kagi successfully secured direct content licenses from multiple smaller vendors (Mojeek, Yandex, Brave, etc.) but failed to obtain compatible terms from the major index holders:
Bing: Terms prohibited the reordering or merging of results, which is essential to Kagi’s product model. Microsoft subsequently retired the Bing Search APIs entirely in May 2025.
Google: Google does not offer a public, general-purpose search API. The only available path involves an ad-syndication bundle, which is incompatible with Kagi's subscription-based, ad-free business model.
DOJ Mandated Remedies (September/December 2025): Following the Sherman Act violation ruling, the court outlined specific remedies:
Mandatory Syndication: Google must offer query-based search syndication services to "Qualified Competitors" on FRAND terms, no less favorable than current partners receive.
No Ad Bundling: Access to search results cannot be conditioned on the use of Google Ads.
Index Data Access: Google must provide Web Search Index data (URLs, crawl metadata, spam scores) at marginal cost.
Duration: The judgment remains in effect for six years, with syndication licenses guaranteed for five-year terms.
Scraping and Enforcement: The December 2025 lawsuit filed by Google against SerpApi for large-scale scraping is cited as an attempt to close the "back door," reinforcing the necessity for regulators to ensure the DOJ's mandated "front door" access via contractual APIs is fully and practically implemented.
Layered Ecosystem Model: Kagi proposes a long-term, diverse market structure enabled by open access:
Layer 1 (Public Good): A non-commercial, taxpayer-funded search service offering baseline access to information (conceptualized as search.org).
Layer 2 (Free/Ad-based): Commercial search engines funded by advertising.
Layer 3 (Paid/Subscription): Premium services (like Kagi) competing on maximum quality, privacy, and advanced features.
Key Takeaway: The DOJ ruling is viewed as a necessary step to convert a closed choke point into shared infrastructure, paving the way for Kagi to exit reliance on third-party SERP vendors and build a genuinely multi-source product based on contractually secured data.