0:24 NKE (Nike): Stock is down 62% from all-time highs and making new lows.
Third quarter fiscal year 2025 revenues were $11.3 billion, down 9% year-over-year.
Nike Direct revenues down 12%, wholesale revenues down 7%.
Gross margin declined by 3.3% to 41.5%.
Revenue declining in all regions, with China down 17%.
Q4 revenue expected to be down in the mid-teens range.
Facing increased competition from ON and Lululemon.
Analyst doesn't invest in the apparel industry due to unpredictability.
7:31 PYPL (PayPal): Stock is down 77% from all-time highs.
Fourth quarter revenues grew by 4% to $8.4 billion.
GAP operating income declined by 17%, GAP EPS decreased by 15%.
PSP (unbranded card processing) volume growth slowed significantly due to a strategic shift towards prioritizing profitable growth.
Expecting earnings per share growth of 6-10% in 2025, $6-7 billion in free cash flow, and $6 billion in buybacks.
Trading at roughly 10 times free cash flows, a 10% free cash flow yield.
DCF calculation suggests a fair value of $96 per share based on pessimistic metrics.
Analyst lacks conviction in PayPal due to competition and slower growth.
14:07 HIMS (Hims & Hers Health): Stock is down 47% from recent peak.
Hims platform seeing strong momentum with app downloads of 47% year-over-year.
Hers downloads are exploding, up 212% year-over-year, while Hims is slowing down, up only 4%.
Company revenue grew by 69% in 2024.
Hims has almost half of the new customers and total telehealth sales in the United States.
Expecting $2.35 billion in revenue in 2025, year-over-year growth of roughly 60%.
Analyst did a reverse DCF and found that the market is currently expecting HIMS to grow its free cash flow by roughly 13% annually and trade for a 22 price to free cash flow.
Continuing to hold shares, happy with current allocation.
20:38 TSLA (Tesla): Discusses Kathy Wood's price target of $2,600 by 2030, claiming robo taxis will account for 90% of the company's value.
Analyst finds these projections wild, pointing out Google's Waymo is ahead in the robo taxi market.
Tesla would need to grow its operating cash flows by 70% annually and trade for a 40 price to operating cash flow to achieve a stock price of $2,600.
BYD is growing faster than Tesla and trading at a much lower price to operating cash flow ratio.
Tesla's value is pricing in future growth as a high-margin software company.
Even after a 50% drop, the analyst finds Tesla extremely overvalued and isn't interested in the stock.
27:21 ASML (ASML Holding): Discusses China's potential EUV breakthrough that could rival ASML's lithography machines.
China's LDP-based EUV systems can produce chips with 13.5 nanometers.
China has been unable to obtain ASML's EUV machines due to US export restrictions.
Could impact ASML's China sales if China commercializes the technology.
Analyst doesn't think it's a worry right now but something to pay attention to.