This episode of "This week in Viology" (TwIV 1214), recorded on May 1st, 2025, features Vincent Rakinello and Dr. Daniel Griffin discussing current events in virology and public health. A major theme is a perceived "attack on science" within government agencies, illustrated by funding cuts impacting animal research and restrictions potentially hindering COVID vaccine approval processes. The episode covers updates on vaccine-preventable diseases, highlighting increasing measles cases in the US and globally, and a modeling study predicting its endemic return and potential resurgence of other diseases like polio if vaccination rates decline further. Respiratory virus levels (flu, RSV, COVID) are reported to be decreasing. New research on shingles vaccine reducing dementia risk and COVID infection's link to diabetes (mitigated by vaccination) is discussed. Dr. Griffin analyzes a study on remdesivir restriction in hospitals, critiquing its methodology and suggesting potential negative impacts on patient outcomes despite financial motivations. Listener questions address Human Metapneumovirus diagnosis, how citizens can advocate against harmful policies, vaccine safety arguments, and timing of early childhood vaccinations.
TwIV 1214: Public Health Updates and Concerns
0:27 "Attack on Science" Section: Dr. Daniel Griffin introduces a new segment focusing on policies undermining science, starting with an anecdote about restrictions on ordering supplies, including animal food, at government agencies.
1:36 Impact on Animal Research: Funding cuts have led to the termination of employees and the euthanasia of hundreds of lab animals (mice, rats) at places like the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), with millions potentially at risk nationwide without intervention. These animals are vital for research on diseases like cancer and dementia.
4:24 Project 2025 Connection: The actions are linked to the Project 2025 plan, described as an organized attack on science and institutions, leading to job losses and the loss of valuable research animals.
5:25 Shingles Vaccine & Dementia: A new study in JAMA from Australia replicates previous findings, showing the live attenuated herpes zoster vaccine is associated with a decreased probability of dementia diagnosis.
8:18 Recombinant Shingles Vaccine: A Nature Medicine study published earlier shows the improved recombinant shingles vaccine (Shingrix) is associated with an even lower risk of dementia (additional 17% decrease), aligning with the theory that preventing zoster infection is key.
9:31 Uganda Declares End to Ebola Outbreak: Good news reported β Uganda ended its latest Ebola outbreak after 42 days without a new confirmed case.
10:09 Bird Flu Situation: A Lancet article highlights H5N1 affecting dairy cow herds and humans (including cases of severe disease and the first reported US death), raising concerns about viral adaptation and potential human-to-human transmission. Recommendations include monitoring, testing milk/wastewater, tracking evolution, and using PPE.
11:46 CDC Cancels Bird Flu Workshop: The US CDC reportedly canceled a science group workshop scheduled for June on preventing human bird flu infections, seen as another example of hindering preparedness.
13:16 US Measles Update: The MMWR reports 884 confirmed measles cases in the US as of April 24th (with 800 mentioned earlier based on an April 17th report), predominantly in close-knit communities with low vaccination coverage in New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas.
14:03 CDC Vaccination Recommendation: The CDC report explicitly states that increasing national and local MMR vaccination coverage is essential to preventing measles cases and outbreaks.
15:03 Global Measles Increase: Measles cases have skyrocketed across Europe (up 10x in 2024 vs 2023, over 100,000 cases) and the Americas (up 11x), with hotspots in countries like Ireland, Austria, France, Italy, and Romania.
17:23 Measles Endemic Risk: A modeling study in JAMA predicts measles may re-establish endemicity in the US within 25 years at current vaccination rates (83% simulation probability).
19:04 Decline in Vaccination Impacts: A 10% decline in MMR vaccination is predicted to lead to over 11 million measles cases over 25 years. A 50% decline in routine childhood vaccinations could result in 51 million measles, nearly 10 million rubella, and over 4 million polio cases over the same period.
21:12 Personal Polio Stories: Dr. Griffin shares moving stories of two current patients suffering from severe post-polio syndrome, emphasizing the devastating long-term consequences of the disease.
23:25 Flu and RSV Decreasing: Flu activity is low across most of the US, and RSV season appears to be over, with lower levels compared to the previous season.
23:56 Pediatric Flu Deaths: Flu-related deaths in children climbed to 204 for the season (as of April 25th update), slightly less than the previous year, with about half being previously healthy children and 90% unvaccinated against flu.
24:56 COVID Levels Decreasing: COVID levels are decreasing across the US, with wastewater surveillance data showing low levels.
25:39 Novavax Approval Held Up: Novavax full FDA approval is reportedly being delayed by a requirement for an additional, prohibitively expensive randomized clinical trial, potentially due to political interference, raising concerns about access to this protein-based vaccine alternative.
27:36 Broader Vaccine Access Concerns: The delay in Novavax approval and comments from HHS officials suggesting major manufacturers (Pfizer, Moderna) might need new effectiveness data, potentially including placebo-controlled trials for annual updates (unlike flu vaccine updates), indicate a worrying trend of potentially hindering access to COVID vaccines.
28:48 False Claims about VAERS: Claims about the VAERS system being rigged and adverse vaccine injuries being vastly underreported are dismissed as nonsense.
29:40 Political Polarization & Health Info: Discussion on how news sources contribute to political polarization, citing a survey showing Republicans are less aware of the measles outbreak than Democrats.
30:21 Remdesivir Restriction Study Critique: Analysis of a study on restricting remdesivir use in hospitals, arguing the 14-day mortality endpoint is inadequate. While the study found no statistically significant difference in 14-day mortality (potentially due to low power), the data showed trends towards increased mortality, ICU admissions, mechanical ventilation, and length of stay, suggesting the restriction may not be cost-saving overall and could negatively impact patients.
35:07 Tocilizumab & IVIG for Severe COVID: A Brazilian study found IVIG was not beneficial for severe COVID pneumonia in hospitalized patients and was associated with concerning side effects, unlike tocilizumab. This supports that IVIG is not appropriate for the inflammatory phase of COVID.
36:27 COVID Infection & Diabetes Risk: A study in JAMA Network Open using Singapore data found an increased risk of new-onset type 2 diabetes after SARS-CoV-2 infection among unvaccinated or partially vaccinated adults (after Omicron infection), but not among fully vaccinated or boosted individuals, highlighting the protective effect of vaccination against this long-term complication.
39:19 Call to Action: Listeners are encouraged to contact their government representatives to advocate for continued access to medicines and vaccines.
40:31 Listener Question (Carson): Persistent cough after COVID diagnosed as Human Metapneumovirus, common after RSV season. Dr. Griffin notes the post-acute inflammatory phase of COVID can cause prolonged symptoms, but a new infection is also possible.
42:01 Listener Question (Britney): Expresses alarm at FDA vaccine approval process changes. Advised to continue contacting senators and representatives and inform friends/family about the issues.
43:52 Listener Question (Ellen): Addresses the anti-vaccine argument that vaccines could weaken the immune system against other pathogens. Refuted based on decades of vaccination experience, extensive post-marketing surveillance, and observed public health outcomes (increased life expectancy, healthy adults).
45:26 Listener Question (Aaron): Asks about giving MMR dose to 6-month-old vs. waiting for the standard 12-month timing due to measles concerns. References a study suggesting a dose before 8.5 months might negatively impact the efficacy of later doses, recommending sticking to the studied standard schedule unless in an outbreak area, but acknowledging the risk of infection without protection.
47:40 Listener Comment (Lisa): Comments on a Florida bill preventing healthcare discrimination based on vaccine status and fluoride efforts, humorously calling Florida "where old people and science both go to die," emphasizing the alarming nature of these policies.