Okay, here is the abstract and summary for the provided German text about the Greenpeace study.

Abstract:

This study, conducted by the Else-Frenkel-Brunswik Institute for Greenpeace, investigates the relationship between the quality of local public transport (ÖPNV) and voting behavior in the 2025 German federal election at the municipality level. Using multivariate regression analysis controlling for various social, economic, and infrastructural factors (like municipality size, demographics, purchasing power, unemployment), the research finds a significant correlation between ÖPNV quality and election outcomes for most major parties across approximately 11,000 German municipalities. The effect is particularly pronounced for the far-right AfD, which achieves higher vote shares in areas with poor public transport, especially in East and South Germany (less so in the West, none in the North). Conversely, parties like the CDU, SPD, Greens, and FDP tend to perform better where public transport is better, although these effects also show regional variations. No significant correlation was found for Die Linke or BSW. The study concludes that well-developed public transport has democratic significance beyond practical and ecological aspects, potentially reducing feelings of being "left behind," fostering social inclusion, and thereby strengthening trust in democratic institutions.

Public Transport Quality and German Voting Behavior: Key Findings (Greenpeace Study 2025)

• Core Finding: The study establishes a significant statistical link between the quality of local public bus and train services (ÖPNV) and the 2025 federal election results at the municipality level in Germany.
• Methodology: Researchers used multivariate regression analyses on data from ~11,000 municipalities. They controlled for numerous factors besides ÖPNV quality, including municipality size, population density and development, age structure, economic indicators (purchasing power, unemployment, tax revenue), religious affiliation, broadband access, and voter turnout, to isolate the specific effect of public transport. ÖPNV quality was measured using standardized "Güteklassen" (quality classes).
• AfD Correlation: A poorer quality of public transport correlates with significantly higher vote shares for the AfD. This effect persists even when other socio-economic factors are accounted for.
  • Regional Variation (AfD): The link is strongest in East Germany (comparable in predictive power to purchasing power or average age) and South Germany, noticeable in West Germany, but not present in North Germany.
• CDU/CSU Correlation: The relationship varies regionally.
  • East Germany: CDU performs significantly better (approx. 5 percentage points higher) in municipalities with good ÖPNV.
  • North Germany: CDU performs better in municipalities with poor ÖPNV.
  • West/South Germany: Effects are marginal.
• SPD Correlation: The SPD tends to benefit from good ÖPNV, but the effect is regionally specific.
  • North & South Germany: SPD vote share is significantly higher where ÖPNV quality is better.
  • East & West Germany: Little to no influence of ÖPNV quality on SPD results.
• Green Party Correlation: The Greens generally perform better in urban areas. After controlling for this:
  • West & South Germany: Poorer ÖPNV correlates with lower Green vote shares (effect stronger in the South).
  • East & North Germany: No significant effect of ÖPNV quality on Green results.
• FDP Correlation: Effects vary significantly by region.
  • South Germany: FDP clearly benefits from better ÖPNV quality.
  • North Germany: A slight tendency for FDP to perform better with poorer ÖPNV.
• Die Linke & BSW Correlation: No significant correlation was found between ÖPNV quality and the election results for Die Linke (The Left) or Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW).
• Democratic Significance: The study argues that poor public transport access can contribute to social exclusion and a perception of being "left behind." Improving ÖPNV is presented not just as an environmental or practical measure, but as a way to strengthen social cohesion and trust in democracy by improving access and reducing perceived distances (both physical and social).