This video explores the feasibility of a single-launch, direct lunar mission architecture, aiming to bypass the complexities of in-orbit refueling. Scott Manley analyzes a hypothetical three-stage rocket concept using currently or imminently available components. The proposed stack features a SpaceX Starship/Super Heavy as the first stage, a modified Orion capsule for crew transport, Blue Origin's Blue Moon as the lunar lander, and unconventionally, a paired set of Falcon 9 second stages for the trans-lunar injection (TLI) burn. While calculations suggest this configuration could theoretically deliver the approximately 70-ton payload (Orion and Blue Moon) to a lunar transfer trajectory and into lunar orbit, Manley highlights significant engineering challenges. These include cryogenic propellant management for the extended multi-day journey (especially for the Falcon 9 stages), the current lack of a large payload deployment system for Starship, and logistical complexities regarding lander-capsule docking and crew access.
Building a Single-Launch Moon Rocket: A Hypothetical Analysis
0:00:07 Question Posed: The video addresses a Patreon supporter's question: Can a Saturn V-style, three-stage rocket with a powerful first stage and hydrogen-oxygen upper stages enable a direct moon mission, avoiding complex in-orbit refueling?
0:01:02 Current vs. Proposed: Current Artemis plans involve multiple launches and in-orbit refueling for landers. The Constellation program previously considered a more direct approach.
Of Starliner, SpaceX Dragon, and Orion, the Orion capsule is selected.
Key Takeaway: Chosen for its demonstrated lunar return capability, larger size, robust life support for long missions, and a service module capable of 1-1.5 km/s of delta-V for the return journey.
Blue Origin's Blue Moon lander (approx. 45 tons, ~4.5 km/s delta-V) is selected over the much heavier SpaceX Starship lander.
Important Detail: The Blue Moon lander is designed to travel from a near-rectilinear halo orbit (NRHO) to the lunar surface and back.
0:06:37 Total Payload to the Moon: The combined mass of Orion (~23 tons) and the Blue Moon lander (~45 tons), plus structural elements, amounts to roughly 70 tons needing ~4 km/s of delta-V from an upper stage for TLI and lunar orbit insertion.
SpaceX's Starship/Super Heavy is considered the only viable first stage.
Key Takeaway: To maximize performance, the Starship upper stage would be expendable (heat shield, fins, landing fuel removed), potentially allowing it to lift ~300 tons to a near-orbit trajectory.
Challenge: Starship currently lacks a mechanism to deploy such a large, assembled payload.
0:08:38 The Trans-Lunar Injection (TLI) Stage Dilemma:
Existing stages like ICPS, Centaur V, or Blue Origin's current upper stage are too small.
The EUS, designed for SLS Block 1B (130 tons propellant, 4x RL10s), could theoretically send the 70-ton payload to the moon if launched by the more powerful Starship.
Challenge: EUS is not yet flight-ready, and cryogenic boil-off on a multi-day journey is a concern.
0:10:53 Novel TLI Solution: Dual Falcon 9 Second Stages:
A single Falcon 9 second stage (110 tons wet, kerosene/LOX) is insufficient.
Key Proposal: Use two Falcon 9 second stages mounted side-by-side.
Important Detail: This 220-ton combined stage could provide ~3.8 km/s delta-V, nearly enough for the mission, with deficits potentially covered by the Orion service module or the Blue Moon lander's propulsion.
Cryogenic Management: Falcon 9 stages are designed for hours, not the 4-5 days needed for a lunar trip. Kerosene freezing against the common bulkhead with LOX and general boil-off would require significant modifications (e.g., extra insulation).
Crew Access & Docking: The Blue Moon lander's crew cabin is at its base. This prevents Orion from docking to provide extra crew space during the translunar coast, as it would interfere with the TLI stage's burn and overall vehicle stability. Crew would be confined to Orion until reaching lunar orbit.
0:15:39 Conclusion: Theoretically Plausible but "Janky":
A single-stack direct moon mission using an expendable Starship, a pair of modified Falcon 9 second stages, the Blue Moon lander, and Orion is conceptually possible.
Key Takeaway: However, it faces substantial engineering hurdles related to propellant management for extended durations, Starship payload deployment, and complex docking/crew transfer logistics in lunar orbit, making it a "janky" but interesting thought experiment.