Following a call between President Putin and President Trump, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated there is no deadline for a memorandum to end the Ukraine conflict, citing the complexity of details and no set location for further talks. A BBC Monitoring analysis suggests the call benefited Putin, noting Trump's apparent shift away from requiring a ceasefire before talks and his decision to rule out fresh sanctions for now. The analysis describes the recent interactions as "fruitless" for achieving peace, asserting that Putin remains determined to conquer Ukraine by addressing the "root causes," interpreted as undermining Ukraine's sovereignty. The report highlights the continued strength of Russia's war machine, supported by allies and insufficient economic impact from lower oil prices and delayed, non-crippling sanctions from some European partners, concluding that empty threats against Putin are ineffective.
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0:00 Ukraine Peace Memorandum: Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated there is no deadline for drafting a memorandum on ending the Ukraine conflict, emphasizing the complexity ("devil is in the details") and confirming no location is set for future meetings.
0:19 Trump-Putin Call Context: These comments follow a phone call between Presidents Putin and Trump, which Trump described as having gone "very well."
0:26 Putin's Condition for Peace: President Putin stated that the "root of the crisis should be removed" for the war to end.
0:43 Call Beneficial for Putin: According to BBC Monitoring Russia editor Vitali Chevchenko, the call went well for Putin as it maintained the status quo desired by the Kremlin.
0:51 Trump's Shift and Sanctions: Chevchenko notes Trump appears to have reversed his position, now suggesting talks can precede a ceasefire, and has ruled out fresh sanctions on Russia for the time being.
1:44 Fruitless Peace Efforts: The conversation between the presidents and recent talks in Istanbul are described as "fruitless" for bringing peace closer.
2:07 Putin's Determination: Putin is seen as "playing his own game" and remains "determined to conquer Ukraine."
2:21 Addressing "Root Causes": Russian officials' demand to address "root causes" is interpreted as the fundamental reasons Russia started the war, aiming to stop Ukraine from exercising sovereignty and being an independent state.
3:01 Strength of Russian War Machine: Russia's war machine "appears to be strong enough to continue," producing drones, artillery, and missiles.
3:11 Allied Support & Economy: Russia is supported by allies like North Korea and Iran, and oil prices are not low enough to cripple the economy.
3:26 Dependence on Support & Sanctions Failure: The Kremlin's war machine's strength is partly dependent on it being "allowed to be," with Ukraine having reason to be disappointed by some European allies who have not imposed crippling sanctions despite threats and a missed ceasefire deadline.
3:57 Lack of Sanctions as Invitation: Putin can see the absence of crippling sanctions as an "invitation to keep on attacking Ukraine."
4:03 Empty Threats Ineffective: History shows "empty threats" are ineffective with Vladimir Putin.
4:12 Potential EU Sanctions: There is mention that the EU may approve its next (17th) package of sanctions on Russia.