This document details an analysis of IPv4 address trade data from ipv4.global auctions (2014-2025) using gnuplot. The analysis aims to understand and predict the supply and demand behavior of IPv4 addresses as the internet transitions to IPv6. It explores various aspects such as price trends, batch size distributions, and market volume, highlighting the importance of weighted averages to overcome price inconsistencies. A key finding is the significant surge in IPv4 demand and price between 2020 and 2024. The study concludes with a prediction that the price of IPv4 addresses will drop to zero by the end of 2026, attributed to the ongoing global transition to IPv6.
Analyzing IPv4 Trades with Gnuplot: Market Trends and Future Predictions
Purpose of Analysis: This demo serves two main goals: showcasing various features of gnuplot for data visualization and analyzing the supply and demand dynamics of IPv4 addresses in anticipation of the Internet's transition to IPv6.
Data Source: The analysis utilizes historical trade data from the ipv4.global auction platform, covering transactions from 2014 up to June 2025.
Real-time Capability: The framework supports fetching and plotting real-time IPv4 bid data, allowing for up-to-date market observation.
Initial Price Observations: Early plots of "Single Price from time" reveal direct price fluctuations, though the author notes these are unweighted and can be misleading.
Key Insight on Price Inconsistency: The analysis highlights that simple price plots are inconsistent because they do not account for the volume (nIPs) sold in each transaction. A weighted average is crucial for accurately representing the price per day or month.
Price Distribution Differences: While most individual orders were made around the $20 USD threshold, a weighted price distribution shows that the majority of actual IPs were sold for approximately $50 USD, demonstrating the impact of batch size on perceived market price.
Batch Size and Market Volume Trends: Most IPv4 batches traded are small, but the distribution is not monotonic. A significant surge in demand and market volume for IPv4 addresses was observed between 2020 and 2024, correlating directly with an increase in price during this period.
Identifying Expensive Batches: The most expensive IPv4 address batches predominantly occurred between 2021 and 2023. The common banding seen in trade orders is attributed to IP block sizes typically being multiples of two.
Calculating Actual Average Price: The author emphasizes the importance of calculating the "actual average price per month" by dividing the total money spent by the total number of IPs sold, yielding a much smoother and more accurate price trend than simple averages.
Key Prediction: Based on the analyzed trends and the ongoing transition to IPv6, the study predicts that the price of IPv4 addresses will drop to effectively zero by the end of 2026 due to diminishing demand.
Gnuplot Techniques: The demonstration showcases advanced gnuplot functionalities, including smoothing data (smooth unique), using set table and heredoc for complex data aggregation, and applying statistical analysis to time series.