This Electronic Intifada live stream features a discussion with writer and analyst Helena Cobban about a recent, fictional 12-day war initiated by a joint US-Israeli coalition against Iran. The conversation deconstructs the attack's premise, arguing that the stated goal of targeting Iran's nuclear program was a pretext for the real objective of regime change and weakening the regional "axis of resistance." Cobban asserts that the war ended in a "mutually hurting stalemate," as Israel failed to achieve its strategic goals of dismantling Iran's government or re-establishing its military deterrence. The analysis highlights Iran's sophisticated and resilient military response, which exhausted Israel's multi-layered air defenses, and the role of Western media censorship in obscuring the significant damage Israel sustained. The discussion also covers the major geopolitical fallout, including a notable shift in alliances where China, Russia, and even the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations opposed the attack. Finally, the speakers explore the war's implications for Palestine, suggesting that Israel's exposed vulnerability may alter the regional power balance and affect the prospects for a lasting ceasefire in Gaza.
Analyzing the US-Israeli War on Iran: A Geopolitical Breakdown
0:00:09 A Surprise Attack with Hidden Motives: On June 13th, Israel, with US support, launched a surprise attack on Iran. While the public pretext was targeting nuclear and missile facilities, the hosts and guest argue the real goal was regime change to defeat resistance to US hegemony in the region, particularly in Palestine.
0:03:34 A Joint US-Israeli Operation: Guest Helena Cobban emphasizes that this was a fully coordinated US-Israeli attack, planned long in advance with US CENTCOM. The primary goal was to dismantle Iran's command system and induce chaos, rather than install a specific alternative government.
0:07:05 Israel's Shattered Deterrence: A key motive for the attack was Israel's need to re-establish its "aura of invincibility" and military deterrence, which was severely damaged after the events of October 7, 2023.
0:11:08 The Nuclear Program as a Pretext: The speakers argue that Iran's nuclear program is largely a pretext for aggression, similar to the "weapons of mass destruction" claims used to justify the 2003 invasion of Iraq. This narrative distracts the media from the reality of the conflict, including the damage Israel suffered.
0:12:21 Media Censorship in Israel: The conversation highlights that all foreign reporters in Israel are subject to strict military censorship, which explains why the extent of the damage from Iranian counter-strikes (including hits on the Israeli Defense Ministry) was not reported in real-time by Western media.
0:13:38 A "Mutually Hurting Stalemate": The 12-day war concluded not in a victory, but in a stalemate where both sides sustained significant damage. Israel failed in its goals to topple the Iranian government and restore its military credibility, marking a strategic loss.
0:19:35 Iran's Capabilities Overwhelmed Israeli Defenses: The ceasefire was sought by both sides. Iran's sophisticated, multi-layered attacks with drones and missiles (including hypersonic variants) began to exhaust Israel's expensive, multi-tiered air defense systems (including the US THAAD system).
0:27:32 Iran's Resilient Command Structure: Despite Israel's initial success in assassinating key Iranian commanders and scientists, Iran's military demonstrated remarkable resilience due to redundant command and control systems, allowing it to mount a highly organized and effective response.
0:35:44 The Shifting Roles of China and Russia: The conflict underscored a new geopolitical reality. China and Russia firmly opposed the attack at the UN. Furthermore, China is actively strengthening Iran's resilience by providing critical infrastructure (like the China-Iran railroad), advanced missile guidance systems, and alternative navigation (Beidou) and communication technologies to reduce vulnerabilities to Western spying and sanctions.
0:40:22 Gulf States Break from US-Israeli Alignment: In a significant diplomatic shift, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, traditionally aligned with the US against Iran, also expressed strong opposition to the attack. This reflects a changing regional dynamic, influenced by the China-brokered reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
0:48:54 Fallout for Palestine and Gaza: The speakers posit that Israel used the threat of war with Iran as a "protection racket" to continue its genocide in Gaza without international pressure. Now that Israel's military has been shown to be vulnerable, its ability to make such threats is diminished, which could change the dynamics and create an opening for a real, lasting ceasefire in Gaza.
0:58:35 A Call to End the US Veto: The stream concludes by highlighting a campaign by Just World Educational, "A Call to Humanity," which demands an end to the US veto power at the UN Security Council, identifying it as the key political obstacle to ending the genocide in Gaza and achieving international justice.