In this Electronic Intifada live stream, hosts Alia Boname and Nora Baris-Friedman are joined by analyst Helena Cobban to discuss the recent 12-day conflict between a US-Israeli coalition and Iran. Cobban reframes the conflict not as merely "US-backed," but as a long-planned, joint military operation aimed at regime change in Tehran and re-establishing Israel's "deterrence," which was shattered after October 7th. She argues the nuclear program was largely a pretext. The discussion concludes that the attack was a strategic failure for the US and Israel, resulting in a "mutually hurting stalemate" where Iran demonstrated unexpected military resilience and exhausted Israel's advanced air-defense systems. The conflict highlights significant geopolitical shifts, with China and Russia providing Iran with technological and economic support, and Gulf states breaking from the US-Israeli position. This shift, Cobban suggests, undermines the basis for regional normalization deals with Israel and could alter the balance of power concerning the ongoing genocide in Gaza.
The US-Israeli War on Iran: A Strategic Analysis
0:00:09 - Context of the Conflict: The discussion analyzes the 12-day surprise attack launched by Israel and the US against Iran on June 13th, ostensibly targeting its nuclear and missile programs but with the real goal of regime change.
0:03:37 - A Joint US-Israeli Operation: Guest Helena Cobban asserts this was a deeply coordinated US-Israeli attack, planned long before October 7, 2023. The US military's CENTCOM worked "hand-in-glove" with Israel on the planning.
0:07:05 - Re-establishing Deterrence: A primary Israeli goal was to re-establish the credibility of its military deterrence, which Cobban states was "completely vaporized" by the Palestinian resistance on October 7, 2023.
0:11:08 - The Nuclear Program as a Pretext: Cobban argues that, similar to the "weapons of mass destruction" claims against Iraq, Iran's nuclear program is largely a pretext for military aggression. She notes that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has been compromised by tools like Palantir's "Mosaic," which feed intelligence to Israel.
0:13:38 - A "Mutually Hurting Stalemate": The war ended in a stalemate where both sides suffered, but Israel ultimately failed in its core objectives. It neither toppled the Iranian government nor restored its military credibility, making it a strategic loss for Israel.
0:15:10 - Unprecedented Damage in Israel: Contrary to reports, Israel suffered massive and unprecedented damage. This information was heavily suppressed by Israeli military censorship, though some details later emerged in outlets like Haaretz.
0:19:51 - Israel's Air Defenses Exhausted: A crucial factor leading to the ceasefire was that Iran's sustained and varied missile and drone attacks were overwhelming and depleting Israel's expensive, multi-layered air defense interceptors (including the US THAAD system).
0:27:32 - Iran's Military Resilience: Iran showcased a highly sophisticated and resilient military. Its command-and-control systems featured deep redundancy, allowing them to withstand initial "decapitation" strikes and organize a powerful, coordinated response.
0:35:58 - The Shifting Global Order: The conflict highlights growing ties between Iran, Russia, and China. China, in particular, is providing Iran with advanced technology, including missile guidance systems and a new direct railroad link, strengthening Iran's ability to withstand Western pressure.
0:40:22 - Gulf States Break with the US-Israel Axis: In a major geopolitical shift, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, including Saudi Arabia, expressed opposition to the bombing of Iran. This undermines the premise of the Abraham Accords, which positioned Israel as a regional protector against Iran.
0:51:53 - Impact on the Genocide in Gaza: Cobban describes Israel's threats against Iran as a "protection racket" to shield its genocide in Gaza from international pressure. With the threat now carried out and having largely failed, Israel has lost significant leverage, which could impact the situation in Palestine.
0:58:35 - Call to End the US Veto: The discussion concludes with Cobban's "Call to Humanity" initiative, which aims to build a global movement to overcome the US veto at the UN Security Council, identifying it as the key obstacle to ending the genocide in Gaza and other international crises.