In a strategic discussion hosted by the American Friends of University of Haifa, Major General (Res.) Nimrod Sheffer, former Deputy Commander of the Israeli Air Force and CEO of Israel Aerospace Industries, provides a detailed analysis of Israel's defense strategy following a hypothetical major military campaign against Iran, dubbed "Operation Rising Lion." General Sheffer argues that while the precision strikes were a remarkable military success, severely damaging Iran's nuclear infrastructure, they did not eliminate its breakout capability due to its existing stockpile of enriched uranium. He asserts that Israel's resulting air superiority over Iran is a significant but time-limited advantage. Drawing a parallel between Iran's failure to anticipate the attack and Israel's on October 7th, he attributes both to a rigid "conceptual" blindness. Sheffer concludes that the military option has reached its limit and that the only viable long-term solution is a US-led diplomatic effort to secure a new, verifiable nuclear agreement, as a state of perpetual conflict is unsustainable for Israel.
Israel's Evolving Defense Doctrine: Key Insights from a Former IAF Chief
7:22 - Assessing the Damage to Iran's Nuclear Program: Major General (Maj. Gen.) Sheffer states that while Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities were severely damaged, the overall program was not set back significantly. This is because Iran already possesses enough uranium enriched to 60%, which can be further enriched to bomb-grade (90%) in a matter of weeks or months using a small number of centrifuges.
12:04 - Israel's Air Superiority is Temporary: Sheffer expresses surprise at the speed with which the Israeli Air Force (IAF) achieved "freedom of flight" over Iran, calling the effect on Iranian morale "devastating." However, he warns this strategic advantage is "time-limited" and that Israel must assume Iran will adapt and improve its defenses.
16:50 - Intelligence Success and "Conceptual Failure": The pinpoint accuracy of the strikes was the result of years of intelligence gathering and cooperation with multiple international partners, not just the US. Sheffer contrasts this with the failure of October 7th, attributing both that failure and Iran's failure to anticipate the recent strikes to a flawed "concept"βa rigid belief that prevents seeing other possibilities.
31:48 - A Multi-Layered and Cooperative Air Defense: Israel's air defense success was twofold:
Cruise Missiles & Drones: A 99.9% interception rate, achieved through a cooperative effort between Israel, the US, European allies, and regional partners.
Ballistic Missiles: An 85-90% success rate using a multi-layered system including Israel's Arrow (developed with Boeing) and American THAAD systems. Success was also boosted by offensive strikes that destroyed two-thirds of Iran's launchers.
38:19 - The Military Option is Exhausted: Sheffer's core argument is that the military has achieved the best possible outcome. He believes the next step must be a diplomatic one, led by the United States, to forge a new nuclear agreement. He argues that a long-term reality of continuous Israeli enforcement strikes and Iranian retaliation is not feasible or desirable.
48:34 - A "Turning Point" for Regional Diplomacy: The severe damage inflicted on Iran and its proxies (Hezbollah and Hamas) has created a "potential turning point." Sheffer advocates for bold diplomacy to build a new, safer, and more cooperative Middle East, involving all regional players.
51:45 - The Iranian Air Force Was a Non-Factor: Sheffer confirms that Iran's air force played a negligible role in the conflict, as its aircraft are extremely old (F-14s, Phantoms) and poorly maintained due to sanctions.
53:30 - Hits on Israeli Air Bases Were Not Significant: While confirming that some Iranian ballistic missiles did hit Israeli air bases, Sheffer states the impact on the IAF's operational capacity was not significant due to extensive prior preparation and mitigation strategies.