This video explores a hypothetical "Zday" scenario where humanity loses the ability to manufacture CPUs, examining the cascading effects on technology and society over 30 years. It posits that modern, smaller-node CPUs would fail first due to electromigration and solder fatigue, contrary to intuitive expectations, while older, larger-node hardware would prove more resilient.
The simulation tracks the decline of cloud computing, the rise of black markets, government intervention to preserve vital infrastructure, and the eventual fracturing of the internet. It highlights the degradation of portable devices, modern cars, and storage media (HDDs, then SSDs), leading to a resurgence in software optimization, "dumb cars," "sneaker-net" data transfer, and reliance on vintage computing and optical media for long-term storage. The video concludes that despite the technological regression, recovery is possible, drawing parallels to pre-transistor computing eras and emphasizing the role of grassroots engineering.
A World Without New CPUs: A 30-Year Simulation
0:02 The "Zday" Scenario: A hypothetical future where humans forget how to manufacture CPUs, leading to a "Zero Tape Out Day." This isn't as far-fetched as it sounds, given historical examples of lost manufacturing knowledge.
1:34 Zday + 1 Year: Initial Impact & Black's Equation: Cloud providers are the first to suffer, and computing prices skyrocket. Black's equation, which measures mean time to failure due to electromigration (gradual displacement of metal atoms in wires), becomes critical. Paradoxically, older, larger-node CPUs (e.g., 250nm) prove more resistant to electromigration than modern, smaller-node (e.g., 5nm) chips.
2:59 CPU Longevity & Consumer Adaptation: Savvy consumers prolong CPU life by undervolting and cooling them to reduce electron flow and electromigration.
3:16 Software Optimization is Key: Influenced by John Carmack, the video suggests that software optimization, exemplified by vintage console hobbyists and the demoscene, would see a massive resurgence to maximize the remaining hardware's lifespan.
4:55 Zday + 3 Years: Economic & Social Upheaval: Black market chip sales emerge, and governments intervene to prioritize CPU allocation for vital infrastructure (power, communications, stock market). Military supplies remain stable due to stockpiles. Enterprise-grade CPUs become more valuable than gold, PC gaming is reduced, and cryptocurrency mining is banned in some regions. Hoarding of processors becomes widespread.
5:58 Zday + 7 Years: Cloud Collapse & Device Degradation: Cloud computing shrinks drastically, with data centers resorting to "Frankenstein machines" built from cannibalized parts. Portable devices like smartphones begin failing due to soldering fatigue and battery deterioration. The internet starts fracturing as core hardware like switches and consumer routers reach end-of-life.
7:09 The Rise of "Dumb Cars": Demand surges for pre-1990s cars, which are mostly mechanical and lack the dozens of microprocessors found in modern vehicles. Modern cars' ECUs fail due to thermal cycling and lead-free solder cracking.
7:52 Zday + 15 Years: Fractured Internet & Data Transfer Challenges: The internet no longer exists as a single, unified fabric, replaced by fragmented private networks or individual peering connections, mostly for official use. Elite individuals maintain connectivity via private fiber or satellite. "Sneaker-net" (physically carrying drives) becomes a popular method for data transfer, with SSDs favored over network switches.
8:59 OS & Storage Strategies: Boot-to-RAM and PXE images become common operating system deployment methods to reduce writes to SSDs and prolong their lifespan, as every data write feels costly.
9:35 HDD Failure & Salvage: Hard Disk Drives (HDDs) are largely defunct due to their delicate moving parts, requiring data centers to perform highly precise salvaging of components to keep critical storage arrays operational.
10:30 Zday + 30 Years: Vintage Computing is the New Standard: Working post-1990s computers are nearly impossible for consumers to find. Vintage computing, resembling the 1970s and 1980s, becomes the norm. SSDs eventually fail from "data rot" as NAND cells lose their electrical charge without periodic refreshes.
11:15 Optical Media & Durable Hardware: Long-term data storage shifts to optical media (CDs, DVDs) which require no mechanical or electronic components for data retention. Older CPUs like the Motorola 68000 (3.5 micrometer node size) are projected to last over 10,000 years, highlighting the irony that modern efficiency led to shorter lifespans.
12:12 Hope for Recovery & Conclusion: The scenario emphasizes the importance of microcontrollers and suggests that humanity could recover using older technologies (like vacuum tubes) and through grassroots efforts by electrical engineers attempting to fabricate new transistors from scratch, as seen with Jerry Ellsworth's work. The video invites viewers to share their own theories.